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According to the latest analysis by Századvég Gazdaságkutató Zrt., Due to the more significant impact of the second wave of the epidemic than expected, an economic recession of 6.1 percent may occur this year, surpassing the forecast of just over 5 percent in September. However, GDP could grow 4.2 percent next year and 4.5 percent thereafter, according to the economic researcher, writes MTI.
According to the end of the century, the forecasts for the coming years represent a higher risk than usual, since the recovery process and the volume of permanent damage are not even known. The end of the century drew attention to the fact that after the significant impact of the second quarter, at the end of the third quarter, the performance of some sectors had reached or even exceeded the pre-virus level, but several sectors (for example, tourism , transport) were still significantly lower than before. writes MTI.
Household consumption is estimated to fall less than 3 percent this year by the end of the century. The significant decline in consumption was prevented by the stability of the labor market, the institute noted, referring to the fact that the unemployment rate was estimated to have risen to just 4.2 percent as a result of labor shortages in last.
We need EU funds
Investment may have fallen by more than a tenth this year, in which the uncertain economic environment caused by the virus, the postponement of state, municipal and corporate investment, and the cyclical nature of EU funds also played a role. important role, the institute said. Growth in this sense is already expected in the next two years; In this area, analysts say that the speed of use of EU funds will be decisive.
Exports suffered a significant drop due to the spring closure of European economies, but this was followed by a turnaround, so the research institute calculated that this year’s exports were close to the level of previous years. A moderate decline in imports is expected, also taking into account imports of medical devices.
On an annual basis, the end of the century expects a 3.3 percent drop in money above the central bank’s target but within the target band. However, within this, food prices are rising more than average, increasing the feeling of inflation in households.
The deficit is gone
The budget deficit may be high this year, above 8 percent of GDP, due to the deterioration of the macroeconomic environment and increased public spending, Fin de Siglo said. According to the economic researcher, great emphasis should be placed on the return to the strict fiscal policy of previous years, on the definitive reduction of public debt.
By the end of the century, the budget deficit is expected to remain high at 6.7 percent next year and then 3.5 percent by 2022.
The public debt-to-GDP ratio may rise from 65.4 percent last year to 81 percent this year, then decline to 73.7 percent by 2022, End of the Century noted.
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