The real fight has begun: the Orbán government can block the EU anti-coronavirus device

What is the essence of the Hungarian ultimatum?

Whereas all national parliaments must ratify the common debt issuance structure behind the EUR 750 billion recovery fund before it starts, this gives weight to the previous condition of the Hungarian government, in order to try to dilute as much as possible the rules to link EU funds after 2021 to the rule of law.

And if the disputes drag on, then There is a danger that the new recovery fund may not start in early 2021.For example, the southern Member States, which are also experiencing a severe economic crisis due to the epidemic. Therefore, this puts even more pressure on the relatively quick deal. By the way, Hungary can expect a brutal amount of money from the recovery fund and the normal EU budget starting next to it, we wrote about the latest figures last week:

What do they want from the other side?

Meanwhile, on the other hand, the European Parliament has just reached an agreement on a joint letter between the four main parties (including the Fidesz party family!). the rule of law conditions loosely articulated by the EU Heads of State and Government in July are not enough, a much stricter text and a system of sanctions are needed. If this is not the case, the EP will not give its go-ahead to the EU budget, and without the EP’s consent it cannot come into force, so the associated recovery fund cannot start.

❗Leaders of, S&D, Renew and Green Groups send a letter to the Without formal conclusion (closure) by and of legislation on, it will be impossible for us to advance in it. @EPPGroup

– EPP (Group) August 26, 2020

According to the news agency, the Hungarian government referred the previous condition to the European Parliament through the German Presidency, that is, that the EP and the Council of Member States first agree on an acceptable rule of law and then give their approval to the Hungarian Parliament on the joint issuance of bonds.

Tension: there is no ideal solution

Due to the Hungarian ultimatum, an EU diplomat told the news agency: it is already clear that due to the two views, the conflicting expectations (the stricter the system of conditions and the more flexible it is) it cannot be expected to be an ideal outcome of the debate, In other words, the conditions will be strict and, at the same time, agreement will be reached quickly on the recovery fund and the 2021-2027 budget.

So you have to let it go somewhere and the big question is where, at what points it happens, and who makes it bigger.

Whereas the leaders of the four main political groups in the European Parliament called in a joint letter for the strictest possible rule of law in the second half of August, They will find it difficult to step back on the merits. The hand of the Hungarian government appears to be limited by the fact that even before the EU summit, the parliament adopted a non-legally binding resolution to the effect that EU money cannot be tied to a ideology-driven rule of law system.

After the EU summit, Viktor Orbán informed László Kövér about the results obtained in a letter and assured him that he would fight hard for the objectives that had not yet been achieved:

However, seeing all this tension, the governments of the member states, in addition to the deliberately vague conditionality in July, can point to the EPthat the EP is not going to give its approval to the 2021-2027 budget, to which the recovery fund is linked, without sufficiently strict conditions, so we will have to move towards austerity.

This would predict a bad outcome for the Hungarian government. Meanwhile though there is the urgency, As soon as possible, all national parliaments give their blessing to the historic joint issuance of bonds so that the recovery fund and the allocation of money can begin. This, in turn, points to a weakening of the system of conditions, which would be a favorable outcome for the Hungarian government.

Signs of potential rigor

As we wrote in the days after the EU marathon summit: There were several important signs that EU leaders were finally trying to adopt a strict set of conditions, despite the vague wording. The President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and Charles Michel, President of the European Council, also spoke about this after the summit:

This stricter system would resemble the European Commission would vote on a revised version of the rule of law conditionality already presented in 2018 to the Council, which brings together the governments of the member states, in lieu of a completely new and softened text, as the Hungarian and Polish governments tried to achieve in the days after the EU summit in July.

This original draft regulation stated that if the Commission saw problems with the rule of law in a member state suspend or even cut EU payments to that Member State. These sanctions should not be applied unless a qualified majority of the Member States in the Council, that is, at least 15 Member States representing at least 65% of the Union’s population, blocks this sanction. Is it would be a reverse qualified majority voting method, which would therefore mean blocking / rejecting the proposed sanctions. In this case, even a joint Hungarian and Polish veto could not prevent suspension or reduction of EU payments by one or the other Member State due to criticism of the rule of law.

This would be a very powerful weapon in the hands of the Commission,

but at the EU summit, which lasted a marathon, it was not approved, as a compromise proposal Charles Michel proposed a simple qualified majority vote (here a qualified majority would be needed to approve the sanctions proposed by the Commission) in the final text , but that’s why the four groups of the EP.

A uniform qualified majority would be a much softer weapon in adopting sanctions, as approval here requires a majority. it is true that to create a blocking minority, the governments of Hungary and Poland would have to win 10 more member states, together with which they would have to represent at least 35% of the total population of the EU.

This is also quite difficult to put together, so in the end it would also be a powerful weapon,

as the Hungarian and Polish EU populations together would be only 11.5%, with Slovaks and Czechs slightly above 15%, with Slovenians around 16%, with Bulgarians and Romanians 22%.

An important report will arrive in weeks

It is also not clear at the moment exactly what would be the specific points of the rule of law, in the event of a breach of which the Commission could initiate a proportionate sanction for EU payments. So far, so much can be learned from the recent interview with EU Legal Commissioner Didier Reynders that The Commission will examine how Member States relate to the fundamental values ​​of the EU in four specific areas in its next report on the rule of law at the end of September: the judiciary, the anti-corruption framework, media pluralism, and checks and balances. In addition, there may be some references to phrases in the material about how national governments applied the special legal order during the spring outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic.

The committee’s material is likely to be increasingly critical of the Hungarian situation. assuming that since the Sargentini report adopted in 2018 (which laid the groundwork for the launch of the rule of law procedure against Hungary in the EP), most of the issues indicated in it have not changed.

What is the scheduled schedule?

Presumably the report will also provide a basis for finalizing the rule of law between the EP and the Council, because the material from each country will clearly show which Member State the problems are in and how serious they are. It follows from all this that we will get acquainted with the reports on the rule of law in the Member States at the end of September, and then the EP and the Council will try to come to terms with the Hungarian ultimatum on the content of cross compliance and the method. voting to impose sanctions. qualified majority or block them).

Then sometime The full EP will vote in October on the final framework of the EU budget for 2021-2027 (a simple majority is required for its adoption, this is not the case without the approval of the 4 main factions), and on the basis of these, the Hungarian parliament will be able to decide between October and November on the ratification of the EU recovery fund.

However, the exact timing and outcome are still highly uncertain.

It is true that heated debates are expected in the next two or three months on the issue of the Hungarian rule of law and EU money after 2021, which is really at stake.

Justice Minister Judit Varga warned of the possibility of heated fall debates in the days after the EU marathon summit, which also indicated that the really important details had not been decided at the EU summit, so it would not have been possible to announce a final victory.

Cover image source: Alexandros Michailidis, European Union, European Council Media Council. July 17-21, 2020 On the fourth day of the EU summit in Brussels, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will participate in the plenary session of the summit.