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No one can know for sure if intelligent life exists outside of Earth. According to a research team, we are not alone, in fact we don’t have to go far to find alien civilizations. There’s just one problem: they’ve all probably perished by now and only ruins remain.
The above scenario is not the intellectual product of a science fiction writer, but a joint study by NASA’s Jet Laboratory, California University of Technology, and Santiago High School, USA, published on the arXiv website.
The experts updated the famous Drake equation in the course of their work.
Drake’s equation and its update
American astronomer Frank Drake wrote his famous formula in 1961 to try to calculate how many extraterrestrial civilizations can exist in the Milky Way. In the decades since, many have used the famous equation, but as many have tried, they have come up with so many results, often numbers that are orders of magnitude different.
The reason for the uncertainty is that in Drake’s day, astronomers had no idea of the value of some of the parameters of the formula. These parameters include, among other things, the number of planets orbiting the stars and, in particular, the number of planets in the so-called habitable zone.
The equation can be found in the following form
N = R x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x L
where
N = the number of technical civilizations that can coexist with us in our Galaxy
R = the rate of star formation in our galaxy
fp = proportion of stars with a suitable planetary system
ne = average number of “habitable” planets in a planetary system
fl = probability of life on a “habitable” planet
fi = probability of formation of the intellect on a planet with life
fc = probability of development of a technical civilization capable of interstellar communication on a planet with significant life
L = life expectancy of technical civilization
In recent decades, therefore, various people have touched the equation several times. In the update now presented, the researchers considered three new parameters.
- The possibilities of abiogenesis, that is, the probability of formation of a living organism from inanimate substances (λA).
- The rate of development of life, that is, evolution (Tevo).
- Finally, the probability of self-destruction of a complex life (PAna).
What did they get?
According to calculations with the new parameters, the first intelligent civilizations could have formed 8 billion years after the birth of the Milky Way and are about 13,000 light years from the core of our galaxy.
Among the planets here, we are more likely to find those that orbit in the habitable zone, that is, there is liquid water on their surface. By comparison, Earth is 25,000 light-years from the middle of the Milky Way.
Most extraterrestrial civilizations, the researchers say, are probably still too young to contact us, but there may be some that have become extinct in the meantime.
They may have already been destroyed
The self-destruct factor is important because complex organisms tend to inadvertently kill themselves and their habitat.
When rats are planted on an island, they reproduce in the absence of a natural enemy until all resources have been exhausted and finally die. It is not very elegant to compare ourselves with rodents, but we do the same: with unbridled consumption, with the destruction of nature, we make our planet uninhabitable.
According to the research team, various civilizations may have ascended in the Milky Way, but for the reasons described above, they have now been able to completely exterminate themselves.
The experts emphasized that by modifying the equation, they did not want to estimate the possibility of the existence of extraterrestrial life, but to make the calculations of other research groups more precise.
(Phys.org/Fox News /arXiv)
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