The euro is jumping, but even against it the forint is skyrocketing



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Based on 98% of the vote, Democrat Raphael Warnock leads Republican Kelly Löffler in one of Georgia’s repeat elections with about 40,000 votes, giving Democrats nearly 49 Senate seats. In the other race, Democrat Jon Ossoff also leads Republican David Perdue with 3,500 votes at 98% and there have been no results from the districts where Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential candidate, won in November. It also increases the chances that the 50th Senate seat will also be attracted by Democrats and thus, in the event of a tie, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris’ vote will decide contentious issues. This would mean that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris could begin to achieve their ambitious economic and foreign policy goals without major hurdles in the Senate, and this could also be discounted by the market by weakening the dollar. Biden is also planning a more serious 10-year climate protection and infrastructure development program, in addition to corporate tax increases, which will also point to a further increase in the deficit.

Against this backdrop, the euro jumped above 1.23 against the dollar this morning (to 1.2340), where it last traded in April 2018, reaching a nearly 3-year high in the single European currency.

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The forint still performs even better against the stronger euro as it strengthened below 359 this morning from below 359, as we probably did yesterday – it retested the 358 breakout point, from which it was produced the sudden fall of the forint on December 21.

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If the momentum of the forint persists, according to our technical analysis yesterday, the zone between 354.5-355.5 should be observed, where there is also an ascending trend line and the 200-day moving average, this is a serious support zone that you can certainly stop the forint at the beginning.

The fall of the dollar and the strengthening of the forint together produce good movements in the dollar / guilder exchange rate and, as we assumed yesterday: there is an increasing probability that the market will test the sub-290 range, that is, the support zone here It will break. By this morning, the trade had dropped to just 290.

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Cover Image Source: Getty Images



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