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Epidemic analysts at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Measurement and Evaluation painted a rather dark picture of the situation of the Hungarian epidemic in early October, but recent statistics show an even worse situation: twice as many people have dead in the last few days than worst-case scenarios predict. .
The model was last updated on October 22, when the forecast was made based on three aspects: mandatory use of a mask, maintenance of current regulation and relaxed regulation. According to its forecast from five days ago, on Tuesday there will be 31.78 deaths in any scenario, as the model does not feel the tightening or other change in the short term.
However, 63 people died in Hungary on Tuesday morning according to data for the last 24 hours, the seven-day moving average is 46.3, which is almost 150 percent different from the forecast, if we look at the average. mobile, but daily data also double the forecast.
The Washington model expects 115 deaths per day on November 27, and if discipline is relaxed in the coming days, 120.61 deaths are likely. The peak of the epidemic is expected for mid-December, if everything remains the same, 144.2 people would die per day, and in case of deterioration of defenses, the epidemic could reach its peak in mid-January with 516.94 deaths daily. In the case of mandatory use of masks, the daily maximum would be 77 to 78 deaths.
If we correct these data with the aforementioned 150 percent difference in the last five days, the daily peak in the worst case scenario would be at the peak of February 10, with 213.4 deaths per day, according to nap.hu.
Featured Image: MTI / kormany.hu / Károly Árvai
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