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On the first day of each year, the Center for Business and Economic Research (CEBR) compiles its comprehensive global economic forecast for the next twelve months. In their forecast for this year, released on Friday, CEBR London analysts said they expect much of the world to “move towards normalcy” this year as vaccine use becomes mainstream, which could lead to a resurgence in consumption that was quelled last year by the coronavirus epidemic.
According to the Chamber, this could lead to price increases and even shortages in many areas, especially in the service sectors, as supply will not necessarily be able to keep up with the sudden increase in demand.
CEBR expects this to be particularly true in the field of tourism, as many people who were unable to go on vacation last year due to restrictions and cannot take ski excursions, for example earlier this year, are eager to travel. or visit loved ones. based on all these The best resorts, flights and hotels are likely to be fully booked in the second half of the year. This can also lead to price increases, Partly because the need for costly precautionary and distance measures is anticipated, but also because amid unprecedented demand, tourism businesses will seek to absorb the losses they have suffered over the past year and a half, CEBR predicts Friday.
The Chamber notes that tourism will produce 10 percent of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP), so the recovery of the sector will give a boost to the world economy as a whole.
In this environment, CEBR analysts in London expect world economic GDP, which they said fell 4.4 percent last year, to rise 5.3 percent this year. The company highlights that
more recently, 45 years ago, in 1976, there was the same annual growth rate in the world economy.
Other top London houses have also made optimistic predictions about the growth prospects for the world economy following the arrival of coronavirus vaccines. In its new revised forecast, Oxford Economics has raised its global growth forecast for 2021 from 4.9% which it had previously assumed to 5.2%.
According to the study’s retrospective report, this will be stronger than the world economy achieved after the global financial crisis in 2010 and will also exceed the pace of recovery from the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s, respectively. According to a graphical analysis by Oxford Economics, the global average quarterly growth for this calendar year will be the highest since 1978.
Oxford Economics emphasized that for most of 2020, it perceived a clear forecast of downside risks. However, with the advent of at least three safe and effective vaccines, several negative risk factors, including the risk of other epidemic waves, have decreased, and the number of factors driving the prognosis has started to increase at the same time, according to an Oxford Economics study.
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