[ad_1]
What does this all mean?
All in all, this means impressive prospects: while the heads of hospitals and medical chambers are sending alerts, since the system has already been overwhelmed and the epidemiological austerity measures introduced on March 8 can be said to have been insufficient, while today the prime minister has launched a plan that even it can be seen as a relaxation of shops; nor has it indicated steps so far to stop the jump in the number of contacts at Easter.
These factors point to a further acceleration of the epidemic.
Therefore, it is perhaps no coincidence that Viktor Orbán did not commit himself in the morning interview to tell when the third wave could arrive. He put it this way: “It’s not about when we get to the top, but how quickly we start to start there. Nobody can say that now, so if we go up and then we start to fall rapidly, or we go up and, as epidemiologists say, the plateau will be longer and only then will we go down. So I would not go into predictions for the moment, “Orbán said, answering the question about the peak of the epidemic.
The figure above shows the national process, which may obscure the already favorable outlook in some places, so we analyze the dynamics of the epidemic at the county level. This is summarized in the table below and it can be seen that the total number of infections in the last 7 days has increased in both 19 counties and in the capital compared to the sum of the previous 7 days.
This means that the epidemic has not convincingly stopped anywhere, at best we can only say a situation close to stagnation in the county of Komárom-Esztergom, Somogy and Nógrád.
Elsewhere, to varying degrees, however, the epidemic accelerated. We see the highest acceleration in Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok county, but the dynamics are also outstanding in Bács-Kiskun, Békés county and Veszprém.
Rather than speculate on the peak of the epidemic, the prime minister stressed that our only weapon is the vaccine against the epidemic, of which there are still not enough, but from May it will be available in millions in batches at home. However, it is important to emphasize that The effect of the reinforced vaccination program is to slow down and then suppress the epidemic for at least a few more weeks before it begins to appear due to compositional, numerous and temporary reasons. (At the moment, the least mobile age group over 65 is vaccinated and it also needs time for the vaccine to work, on the other hand, young and middle-aged people are quickly infected, and it can be seen that many serious and departed the dead). And it is doubtful that our hospitals and healthcare personnel will be able to bear an increasing burden for several more weeks and, if so, what the standard of care will be and what the complications of death will be.
Areas of “acceleration”
After all this summary, let’s take a detailed look at all our counties and the capital, where is the situation! As indicated in the introduction, the epidemic seems to be accelerating again in our areas, which are the largest foci so far (areas that produce outbreaks of infection in proportion to the population) based on the 7-day moving average, that is, the trend although we started to trust four counties midweek. In Budapest, however, the number of new infections per day has almost peaked, so the 7-day moving average is close:
In Pest County, with yesterday’s data, the number of daily infections jumped to a new peak and thus the moving average also held on to a new peak. So unfortunately the trend can still be seen here for now.
In Győr-Moson-Sopron county, the upward trend of the epidemic (moving average) was broken in mid-March, but then with the latest data, it appears that the epidemic has strengthened again and the moving average has reached a new peak.
Stagnant-stagnant areas
Komárom-Esztergom county was also one of the largest focal areas previously (also in terms of population), but here the trend of new daily infections has stopped and the moving average has stalled since mid-March. This is encouraging, although it must be added that a convincing downtrend has not yet been able to start.
With an optimistic approach to the situation of the epidemic in Somogy County (which can also be called a focal point based on population data), we can say that it may be around a peak, the 7-day moving average has not increased in the last few days, or there is a decrease based on the most recent data.
Using the same bullish glasses for the Nógrád county data, which is also a focal point, we can say that we can see the peak, but the 7-day moving average is only decreasing for 2 days, which is not such a compelling trend. . .
The situation in our 14 counties is still starting to get worse
After reviewing the recent epidemiological situation of the previous 5 counties and the capital, we arrived at the 14 counties in which, unfortunately, practically the same pattern prevails: the seven-day moving average is starting to rise more and more sharply, that is, the epidemic situation is starting to worsen. This is in addition to the fact that our hospitals have already overflowed and tighter epidemiological restrictions have been in place for almost 3 weeks, and the government has allowed store regulation to be relaxed, removing access restrictions and not announcing anything that slow down the jump expected at Easter around Easter. (Preparations should be made as soon as possible if the government thinks so, because the information to be released Thursday through Friday after the government meeting next Wednesday may be too late for many families due to travel and “subway” programs. ).
So, unfortunately, the following figures indicate that the epidemic in most rural regions is only just beginning to really intensify.
Cover image source: MTI / Krizsán Csaba. The equipment of the Malomliget playground in Győr will be disinfected by a specialist in protective clothing from Győr-Szol Zrt. As part of the protection against the coronavirus epidemic on March 24, 2021.
[ad_2]
