That is why it is so dangerous for the coronavirus to explode in Hungary

It is said on a daily basis in the fact sheet of operating personnel and also doctors that elderly and chronic patients are more afraid of coronavirus infection. However, until now there has been no recent data on how many there may actually be who suffer from some type of chronic disease. According to an analysis recently published by the Central Statistical Office (CSO) based on 2019 data, half of the population suffers from a chronic disease. (This does not mean that the coronavirus is dangerous for everyone, but we will write about that later.)

Let’s see the data!

In 2019, 48% of the Hungarian population reported having a chronic illness that had been present for at least 6 months, or presumably for at least the same amount of time afterwards. More women fight this disease (51%) than men (44%).

The CSO analysis indicates that 61% of the Hungarian population, including 57% of men and 65% of women, had a long-term illness diagnosed by a doctor in the 12 months prior to the survey. 87% of people with a chronic illness diagnosed by a doctor also take medication for their illness.

• As can be seen from the graphs above, the most common chronic disease in terms of coronavirus, based on experience to date, is also a risk factor for hypertension, in which almost one in three Hungarians (29% of the men and 33% of women) suffer from it.
• Common chronic diseases are low back or spinal pain and joint wear and tear (20% and 15%, respectively), but these alone are not considered a risk factor for coronavirus.
• Almost 15% of the population suffers from some type of allergy, almost 13% have high cholesterol levels and 9% receive treatment for diabetes. None of them are good for the coronavirus, and studies list diabetes as the riskiest.
• The following are considered major risks for the coronavirus: 5% live with asthma, 4% have chronic bronchitis or pneumonia, but various heart diseases, kidney failure or neoplasms also affect hundreds of thousands of people.

If we add the above diseases, it would turn out that 180% of Hungarians suffer from some type of chronic disease, that is, more people than we live in the country. However, we know that 60% of the population is affected, so it is easy to calculate that a chronic patient suffers from 3 diseases at the same time.

It could easily be that of the chronic diseases in which the patient suffers at the same time, one chronic disease is serious for the coronavirus and the other is not. Therefore, it is not possible to simply reduce the number of chronic patients at risk of contracting coronavirus by the total number of people who also have a chronic disease that is not dangerous, since on average they also suffer from 1-2 more chronic diseases, thus avoiding more serious diseases by mistake. of risk cases. However, we hypothesize that obviously there are still people whose mild chronic illness is not associated with a severe illness, by whose number we can narrow the camp of people at risk.

Therefore, we are not subtracting all those who suffer from joint and back pain because they would be a problem with the coronavirus, but we are correcting the data with only a part of them because they may also be suffering from other chronic diseases that can be serious when Same time. Thus, in general, it can be said that 50-60% of Hungarians do not belong to the risk group in terms of coronavirus, however, approx. 40% of them may be at risk due to their age and / or chronic illness.

Based on the continuation of data on chronic patients in 2014 and population aging / change in society, the Portfolio previously wrote that millions of Hungarians may still have a chronic disease (or be at risk due to old age), which was confirmed by a recent survey. In light of recent data, approximately 4 million people in Hungary are at risk, why

• or have a chronic disease that puts them at risk of contracting the coronavirus,
• and / or are at higher risk due to old age.

It can be seen that 30% of the population is affected only by high blood pressure, about 10-10% have high cholesterol or diabetes, and a significant proportion of Hungarians live with other diseases, which are also considered at risk. This does not mean that the coronavirus is certainly severe in their case (and they are hospitalized), only that there is a greater chance that the disease will become more severe or a greater risk of death if someone has multiple chronic diseases that are dangerous for the coronavirus. at the same time. It is important to emphasize that chronic diseases must be maintained with medications and therapies, so that the risk factor for the disease in question can be reduced in case of coronavirus infection.

After publishing the CSO analysis, we also contacted operations staff to comment on the data and asked them which chronic diseases they considered to be at risk and how many may be at particular risk of contracting the virus, but we did not answer our questions.

Let’s see the details!

The proportion of chronic patients increases with age: one-fifth of those aged 15 to 17 and 77% of those aged 65 and over had a long-term chronic health problem. The proportion of chronic patients was higher among women than men in all age groups, except between 15 and 17 years.

There is also a correlation between the level of education and the incidence of chronic diseases. 52% of those with no more than a basic education and those without a high school diploma, 44% of those with a high school diploma and 45% of those with a higher education have a disease chronicle. For women, higher education is clearly associated with a decrease in the proportion of chronic patients. In the case of men, on the other hand, the incidence of chronic diseases was the most common among those without secondary education (50%) and the lowest among those with secondary and even primary education (40-40%).

In terms of income status, the highest and lowest income quintiles have the lowest rates of chronic diseases (43 and 44%), while those in the middle-income categories range between 49 and 52%.

Perhaps it is also due to the younger age composition of couples who are proportionally less likely to have a chronic disease (37%) than those who are married (53%). While one in four married people has reached the age of 65, only 4.8% of life partners. And the young feel healthier than the old. The proportion of chronic patients varies not only according to the existence of the relationship and its form, but also according to the number of children raised at home. Furthermore, the incidence of chronic diseases is gradually decreasing with the number of children of married and single parents.

In general, a large proportion of the Hungarian population suffers from chronic diseases that doctors consider to be at risk for the coronavirus (eg hypertension, diabetes). While healthy people generally have a milder course of the disease (but a serious condition is not ruled out), many of the chronically ill patients can be hospitalized or have a fatal outcome. It is worth noting that the survey is a “lower estimate”, that is, fewer are not, at most more can be those who suffer from the above diseases, only not yet diagnosed.

It is not just a disease
A recent study on the relationship between chronic diseases and COVID-19 has been published. It concludes that the world is immersed in a storm of increasing rates of chronic diseases, infectious diseases and deficiencies in public health systems. According to a study in the medical journal The Lancet, the emergence of a coronavirus pandemic with the global spread of chronic diseases such as obesity and diabetes and environmental risks such as air pollution have increased mortality from coronavirus. Covid-19 is both an acute and a chronic health crisis, said Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of The Lancet, who called the coronavirus epidemic syndicated alongside high global rates of obesity, diabetes and other chronic diseases. Horton, an honorary professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and University College London, previously suggested that COVID-19 is not just an infectious disease, but a SARS-COV-2 coronavirus infection and a non-communicable chronic disease. . respiratory diseases, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancer: syndrome resulting from a synergistic interaction harmful to health, a wave of diseases.

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