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At the beginning of the presentation, Elon Musk drew viewers’ attention to the fact that the world currently has a terribly modest battery production capacity, it would take 10 terawatt hours a year, compared to just 0.29 TWh a year. past. According to the director of Tesla, this problem can be remedied by making batteries more efficient and cheaper.
That’s why Tesla has set a goal of cutting the cost of manufacturing its battery cells in half, along with the most efficient production available.
To achieve this, they had to make substantial progress in five important areas:
- In cell layout
- In cell manufacturing
- In the material use of the anode side of the cell.
- In the cell material use on the cathode side.
- And in the integration of cells in vehicles
Tesla’s latest battery cell has been introduced
On battery day, the world learned about Tesla’s latest battery cell, the 4680, which is much larger than the previous 18650 and 2170 versions (46mm in diameter and 80mm in length) and actually uses the latest patent. from Tesla, the “Tabless” Solution. The essence of this is that the current-carrying film is not connected to the negative terminal of the cylindrical cell through a contact tab, but along the entire length of the wound electrode strip. Thanks to this solution, the electrons can reach the electrode not through a narrow contact tab, but along the entire length of the electrode strip, thus reducing the electrical resistance and therefore less heat generation in the electrodes. cells. Another great advantage of the solution is that it has become easier to manufacture the cells, fewer parts have to be used in production.
All of this has resulted in a doubling of the battery cell’s energy density and performance and a 16 percent increase in the range it provides.
It’s worth noting here, by the way, that Elon Musk was very mysterious at the event, it would have been an important indicator if he revealed exactly how much the energy density of the new battery cell had increased, but this did not happen.
However, we learned that thanks to the new cell design, manufacturing costs could be reduced by 14 percent, although it was not clear exactly the dollar amount against which this improvement is expected.
It was also very important that during the presentation, Tesla emphasized that the production of the new cells would start soon and that their plan was to increase the capacity to 10 GWh by boosting production, which of course could be expanded substantially in the future. GWh was mentioned.
More efficient production will result in significant savings
Tesla also unveiled a series of production innovations on launch day that will enable the company’s highly automated production line to produce seven times faster, allowing it to produce 20 GWh of battery capacity annually. According to the company’s info graphics, this will result in Tesla being able to produce 1 TWh of battery capacity in a smaller area than it could now produce 150 GWh.
Additionally, this value may increase further over time, and Tesla expects its own annual production capacity (excluding suppliers) to reach 100 GWh in 2022 and exceed 3 terawatt hours by 2030 (when all currently announced enhancements are implemented. ).
As manufacturing has become more efficient, Tesla estimates it could achieve an additional 18 percent savings in battery pack production.
However, the 3 TWh annual production capacity mentioned by Elon Musk, if implemented, should not be left out, given current expectations, it would mean that Tesla would become by far the largest player in global battery production. . At present, industry players estimate that China’s CATL will have the largest production capacity in 2028, while Tesla will only be in the middle.
The chemistry on the anode and cathode side changes
Although in our previous material, in which we guessed what announcements would be tonight, we did not consider it at all likely that Tesla would make a change to the anode side and then introduce silicon to its production, it would still happen. In addition, the company reported the use of an extremely low-cost version, which, in addition to substantially increasing the range,
Tesla estimates that it could cut the battery manufacturing cost by an additional 5 percent.
It also turned out that Tesla is working to maximize the amount of nickel on the cathode side and eliminate the use of cobalt, which is estimated to reduce cathode manufacturing costs by about 15 percent.
However, it was emphasized in the presentation that Tesla will use different materials on the cathode side for each product, in which cost optimization and profit margin maximization obviously play an important role. The company will use iron in its cheapest electric models, which are expected to be the previously announced lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) batteries. For cars where the goal is to provide long range, nickel and manganese will be used in the production of the battery cell, while for high-load vehicles like Cybertruck and Semi, a nickel-rich anode will be produced to produce the cells. .
It was also a major signal from Tesla that the cathode manufacturing process would be changed, reducing the investment required for this step by 66 percent (which was not disclosed) and the cost of the process dropping by 77 percent in comparison. with the traditional.
Overall, a change in the cost of manufacturing the battery pack is expected to result in a 12 percent reduction in the cost of manufacturing the battery pack.
It’s also a huge draw that the American electric car maker bought a lithium-ion mine in Nevada to be able to produce this extremely important raw material for production internally.
Musk integrates the battery into vehicles
Elon Musk had a big surprise at the end of the presentation, as it was already known from previous news that Tesla is planning radical changes in the automotive industry, since the head of the company said that the structural structure of vehicles will be changed. Now it is clear exactly what this means:
Tesla virtually integrates the battery into the breed.
The move will result in a 10 percent weight reduction with 370 fewer parts, better vehicle build, which will likely make Tesla cars safer, and if all that isn’t enough, expectations have to be said. they can increase your reach by up to 14 percent.
IN ADDITION, MUSCLES RECOGNIZE THAT IT ALL MEANS AN ADDITIONAL 7 PERCENT REDUCTION IN BATTERY PACK MANUFACTURING COSTS.
So how much is that?
Taking into account the five important innovations, Tesla estimates that they will be able to reduce the cost of a dollar package per 1 kWh in dollars by 56 percent.
In addition, your vehicles your reach could increase by 54 percent, while your investment cost to produce a gigawatt hour could fall by 69 percent.
However, in relation to the above figures, it is important to emphasize that there is no doubt that Tesla will be able to completely change its production to new cells and architecture from one moment to the next. As we have previously written, although the production start-up will begin, it will be a slow process and full implementation is a medium and long-term goal for Tesla. It is no coincidence that Musk emphasized before and during the presentation that the really big task is not to produce prototypes, but to be able to do all this in mass production, which is currently the bottleneck.
At the same time, it is important to note that these solutions are already available to Tesla, which will significantly increase their advantage over other players in the industry and allow them to produce many more electric vehicles in the future.
The production of 20 million vehicles per year has been formulated as a concrete long-term plan. To illustrate just how large this number is, it is worth saying that Volkswagen and Toyota are producing roughly as many cars together.
You have to see that Tesla is going strong in the areas that have so far been a bottleneck in mass production, be it the use of raw materials, the available battery capacity and of course the high price of the package of batteries.
In the case of the latter, we missed the presentation, by the way, exactly where Tesla can go, how much it can cut the price of the battery in the next few years. This would have been particularly important because the company had previously promised to reach the dream limit of $ 100 / kWh by the end of 2020, which is significant because at this level, the price of electric cars will be competitive with cars with internal combustion engines. . according to industry experts.
You can come for the $ 25,000 Tesla
The CleanTechnica expectation came as they expected Musk to announce a new Tesla small car at today’s event, which will go to showrooms much cheaper than any model available today. Here’s how it really happened, as the Tesla manager had two slideshows reserved for the end of the show:
one is a $ 25,000 model expected to hit the market in 3 years, plus for that price, you’ll get the Tesla autopilot system as promised.
The latter, a particularly expensive feature, cannot be accidentally included in the smaller Tesla, who looked closely at the presentation slides, noting that among the former, it was written on the covered model.
Small / Robotaxi, which may even be an indication that with the cheaper Tesla model, the company will open up to a new and long-awaited service in the future.
The other was the introduction of the Tesla Model S Plaid, which could start shipping late next year, but fans can now start placing their orders for the top version with jaw-dropping driving performance. Don’t get me wrong, the word awe may be too restrained, as the car is promised to accelerate from 0 to 100 in less than 2 seconds, while its top speed will be above 320 km / h and can cover up to 830 kilometers in a single charging. Otherwise, the vehicle will be powered by 3 electric motors and will have 1,100 horsepower, outperforming any other electric car in the world currently in mass production.
Cover Image Source: David Paul Morris / Bloomberg via Getty Images
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