The number of hospital treatments can increase in 4-5 weeks and the number of deaths in two weeks, warn Hungarian experts.

Coronavirus: the second wave

Half a year after the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in the spring, the second wave of the pandemic has arrived. The radical increase in the number of infected is forcing more and more countries to re-impose restrictions, despite the fact that the world economy has not even recovered from the effects of the spring outbreak. According to the posters, the second wave also reached Hungary. Follow our news!

The virology research group at the University of Pécs has published an informative post on Facebook about the latest phase of the coronavirus epidemic in Hungary. The point of the current stage, according to the group, is that most infections apparently affect the young age group, so the scenario, at least in terms of hospital treatments, may seem favorable. However, moods cool quickly: Unfortunately, the picture is more nuanced and much more complex, and it doesn’t promise good results at all.

The current pattern, they say, is very similar to the Florida example: We can already experience the different nature of the second wave and the resulting different scenario for ourselves.

According to the researchers, there are several reasons for the increased participation of young people:

  • Expansion of the testing strategy (it is now a known fact that asymptomatic / mild symptoms play a very important role in the movement of the epidemic)
  • the elderly are more cautious
  • spreads more among young people (less cautious, their movement pattern helps spread, etc.)

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However, according to the Pécs virologists, this is only the beginning, and in the next stage, with the spread of the chains of infection, infections can affect the elderly in greater numbers; at least the strange samples point in this direction. That’s why it’s especially important to pay attention to them now. Therefore, the number of hospitalizations is expected to increase (with a delay of 4-5 weeks), followed by a mortality rate of 2-4 weeks.

New mutation? Not

It has been raised in various places in the media that new mutant viruses have emerged and therefore the younger generation would be particularly affected at this time. According to the Pécs researchers, there is no scientific evidence for this, but there are no indications.

What we see now in the genetic data of the virus in Europe and Hungary does not indicate a mutation that could be related to practical changes to any degree.

As winter approaches, experts are not expecting anything good either, because the virus spreads particularly well in closed, poorly ventilated areas, and aerosol spread has also been supported.

The movement pattern of people in the colder months into confined spaces, their general immune status, and the fact that nearly all currently circulating human coronaviruses show seasonality sound the alarm loudly.

They say.

According to the researchers, all the effects and processes listed above can be mitigated with proper social care.

Now it is up to the man in the street how deep he allows the virus to ring in the different age groups of the population and how much burden will be imposed on hospitals and consequently on our daily lives later on.

Can the coronavirus be infected twice?

In some cases, it cannot be completely ruled out that someone could be infected with a coronavirus twice. However, the phenomenon is not yet common.

If you ever want to know about similar things, check out the Facebook page in the HVG Tech section.



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