The weather will be extreme, there may be unusual mild and calm winter periods.

Recent years have brought increasingly changeable winters, often extreme snowstorms hit the continents of North America or Eurasia, and other times they experience fairly mild weather conditions in remote northern regions, writes the Hungarian Academy of Sciences in its Article.

To understand where these extremes originate, Arctic weather must be examined according to the MTA. Above the North Pole area, air is constantly circulating in a huge vortex in the upper atmosphere, this rotating mass of air thousands of kilometers across is called a polar vortex.

The force of such a vortex is determined by the difference in temperature between the equator and the heel, it is weaker in summer and more intense in winter.

At the edge of the polar vortex at an altitude of about 7-12 km, a strong current of air circulates around the continents and oceans of the northern hemisphere, this is called a running current or jet stream.

If the polar vortex is strong, so is the current that runs, and its trajectory extends northward and does not allow cold air masses to erupt from the Arctic, but if the polar vortex is weak, the current that runs also weakens, spreads further south in sections, and often knows its way. to represent a detached mass of cold air.

According to the article from the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, this should be imagined as if an invisible rubber ring stretches around the North Pole, tightening around the pole as the polar vortex intensifies and loosen, it becomes wider. and wavy as it weakens.

The force of the polar vortex, and with it the tension and slack of this meteorological “rubber ring”, is related to the pressure conditions of the air masses around the Arctic. The change in these is called the arctic oscillation.

If air pressure around the Arctic is lower than average, the polar vortex intensifies, the “rubber ring” tightens, and fewer gusts of winter cold can be expected, but if air pressure around the pole is higher on average, the polar vortex weakens, the “rubber ring” loosens and becomes more wavy, along which waves of cold and polar air can break into southern areas and cause heavy snow storms.

The staff of the Research Group in Theoretical Physics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and the Research Center for Astronomical and Earth Sciences used novel simulation methods to investigate the effects of climate change on polar atmospheric processes.

The study analyzed the expected future changes in the Arctic Oscillation based on the results of two state-of-the-art climate models and various climate scenarios. From the map resulting from the analysis, it was possible to read in which areas in the future the amplitude of the pressure fluctuation related to the oscillation will be greater and where it will be less.

The predictions from the different models differed somewhat, but there was broad agreement: in general, fluctuations in air pressure are expected around the Arctic.

Translated into practice, this means that we can expect increasingly abrupt and increasingly cold intrusions from the south, while at the same time unusually mild and calm winter periods can be expected.

At the same time, changes in the relationships between the climate are expected in distant parts of the Earth. Meteorologist György Babolcsai’s December Anomaly Index in December, which characterizes the relationship between the value of atmospheric pressure in early autumn in the North Atlantic region and the average temperature in December in the Carpathian basin, also characterizes a long-distance relationship in winter weather forecasting.

Hungarian researchers have found that the strength of the Arctic oscillation temperature relationships in Europe is expected to decrease with climate change, that is, it is not enough that the amplitude of the Arctic oscillation increases on average, but, at least here in Europe, it is increasingly difficult to predict the oscillation phase index. what specific weather means everything.

What exactly is a cold robbery was also covered in a previous article.

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A cold robbery is imminent, snow is promised for Saturday


hvg.hu
Weather

In Bakony, maybe you can go sledding on Saturday, elsewhere the weekend promises a lot of rain. But on Thursday we won’t feel much of that yet, the spring heat will remain.

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MTI
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