[ad_1]
Isn’t it an exaggeration? Donald Trump’s campaign tied three spots in Pennsylvania for a few hours Sunday night to hack there while
- Trump’s son Donald Jr. just lived in Michigan.
- his other son, Eric in Florida,
- and honorary family member Mike Pence, vice president, was in charge of campaign circles in North Carolina.
This is not an exaggeration. These are the most important states besides Arizona and Wisconsin. the keys to the white house.
Due to the peculiarity of the US presidential elections, due to the electoral system, it does not matter how much superiority Joe Biden wins, say, the most populous federal state, California, 40 million, and he certainly gathers the 55 electoral votes.
Of Hillary Clinton’s 8.7 million voters in California in 2016, more than four million were unnecessarily defeated by the failed Democratic presidential nominee in the sense that Clinton could have beaten Trump there by 4.5 million.
In the meantime, however, the victory was really missed.
- 11,000 votes (and therefore 16 voters there) in Michigan
- 23,000 votes (and 10 voters) in Wisconsin
- 45,000 votes (and 20 voters) in Pennsylvania.
If you win these three states in 2016, today you are the president of the United States.
Flow of letters
Along with the letter and the referenda, about 90 million have already cast their vote in the United States, and turnout is estimated to reach 150 million for the first time (of course, with ongoing population growth, there are currently 330 million in the country).
In Texas and Hawaii, more people have already voted than in 2016 combined. and the big day is yet to come, Tuesday, November 3.
Therefore, the so-called battlefield states are becoming more and more important.
In these the fight is open, and even everything can be decided by hidden votes, that is, the votes of citizens whose sympathy is not (well) measured by pollsters.
Biden also knows it’s unnecessary to fight in, say, South Alabama, this safe Trump state, where the president leads by 19-20 percentage points in seemingly unimportant polls.
On the state battlefield average, Biden’s lead isn’t very significant at just 3.2 percentage points. Michigan has the highest level (6.5), North Carolina and Florida the lowest (1.2-1.2), and Arizona has a negligible 0.6 percentage point.
In the five battlefield states, Clinton led an average of 1.6 percentage points four years ago, just days before the vote.
Then he lost all five.
In three of the five states (Arizona, North Carolina, Florida), turnout already shows high turnout. On Florida, where a week ago the president also cast his vote; as he said, “to a guy named Trump,” we recently wrote separately.
Black and Spanish voices
Campaign teams are well aware that residential segregation is very strong in the United States, so counties need special attention as well.
In Florida, which ranks 29th out of 538 American voters, Clinton, who was popular with blacks over Trump in particular, had the biggest lead in Gadsden County, with more than two-thirds. Gadsden is the only county in the state where the majority of blacks live.
Trump, on the other hand, hit Clinton 88 percent in Holmes, Florida’s only near-“ old Dixieland ” county inhabited almost entirely by white Anglo-Saxons, where time seems to stand still: its speaking residents. Hispanic are not very Hispanic either.
IN THE SUNSHINE STATE, 2.5 MILLION SPANISH VOTERS CAN DECIDE ALL THIS YEAR. even the fate of the White House.
It can all depend on Florida. The Republican president has not won without Florida in nearly a hundred years since Calvin Coolidge, and there were only two exceptions among Democrats: John F. Kennedy and Bill Clinton.
Brian Fonseca, director of the Public Policy Institute at Florida International University, noted.
While many Hispanics dislike Trump’s strict immigration policy, many are impressed by his anti-communist sentiment.
Here, among us from Colombia, Venezuela, Cuba and elsewhere, there are few who sympathize with the ideology of the left.
Said an elder, Julio Núñez, in the Little Havana district of Miami, in an Index article as a Hungarian partner in Washington’s Foreign Relations Virtual Reporting Program.
Penn State and others
With 29 elective votes, Florida is the grand prize of the five battlefields, but Pennsylvania (20) is not a much smaller wall either.
here the word of the blacks can be decisive; they constitute 11 percent of the 13 million inhabitants.
“Social unrest, the disproportionate impact of the new coronavirus epidemic on communities of color, and renewed national attention to the civil rights of African Americans are drawing more black voters to polling stations in Pennsylvania than in 2016,” he wrote in your report there. USA Today.
Anger raged in the United States after the death of black George Floyd in May.
From Stevie Wonder, with love
The fight for the third-largest bite of five, Michigan (16 voters), can also be decided by the skin color of the voters and their turnout.
Four years ago, more than 40,000 fewer people voted in Detroit, a stable Democrat, and now inhabited almost exclusively by blacks. And Clinton, as we write, lost Michigan by 11,000 votes …
Trump is popular in this northern industrial state, especially among white-skinned blue-collar workers, including auto factory workers and their families, who feel let down by Democrats.
Biden’s former boss Barack Obama and Stevie Wonder last night gave Detroit a campaign boost, which turned out to be a hit in 2016.
The rest is up to the voters.
(Cover image: Voter casts their vote in Tucson on October 31, 2020. Photo: Cheney Orr / Reuters)
[ad_2]
