Research has shown: the second wave of the coronavirus in Hungary is independent of the spread of the spring epidemic

Under the direction of the Szeged Center for Biological Research (SZBK) belonging to the Eötvös Loránd Research Network, in cooperation with the National Virology Laboratory of the University of Pécs, the comparative analysis of viruses The first wave of infection in the spring followed being local, while a national chain was established in autumn, confirming the role of domestic dispersal and supporting that epidemiological restrictions are key to preventing or slowing the spread of the infection.

The virus variants that make up the infection chains currently spreading in Hungary are basically the same as the virus variants spreading in Europe:

the current wave of epidemics is dominated by variants that developed in other European countries during the spring.

Why are these studies important?

The aim of the Hungarian scientific work carried out in a consortium is to obtain new information on the spread of the epidemic in Hungary and the emergence of new variants of the virus through rapid and real-time examination of the genomes of the Hungarian coronavirus, based on knowledge evolutionary and bioinformatics of the research groups. Bálint Kintses and dr. Balázs Papp, the BRC staff and the Hungarian Center for Excellence in Molecular Medicine (HCEMM) are the main targets of the scientific work.

Data on national virus variants are also important elements of international virus monitoring, as they help prepare for future epidemiological situations by expanding knowledge about the pathogen, allowing detection of the emergence of more dangerous virus variants in Hungary . In addition, continuous monitoring of viral changes is an important tool to assess as accurately as possible the expected efficacy of vaccination programs and therapies.

So what happened in the spring?

Based on the genetic examination of the virus variants, the so-called By analyzing the evolutionary tree, it can be stated that the first Hungarian imports normally detected could have taken place at the end of February and in the first half of March, at the time when the first infections affected western Europe. This finding also confirms that

the widespread belief that the virus would have spread in Hungary earlier is incorrect

– point out the researchers who perform bioinformatic analysis of genomic sequences, dr. Eszter Ari and dr. Vásárhelyi Bálint Márk.

Evolutionary descent analysis shows that

the variants of the virus that spread in Hungary in March are the same as those that are widespread in other European countries at that time

As these variants were observed in Italy from the beginning, we can say that the Italian variants were also widespread in Hungary.

The virus introductions that preceded the March 17 border closure formed several domestic clades, that is, a nationwide chain of infection. Examination of the 85 spring virus samples indicates that the presence of at least 6 independent clades can be confirmed in the first phase of the epidemic among the Hungarian population (highlighted in blue in the figure). These clades are usually short. The longest sampled distribution chain (Hun A) covers two months. The clades that appear in each county did not normally spread to another county, so the chains of infection from the first wave of epidemics remained local. From this it can be concluded that epidemiological measures were effective, the spread of infections introduced in the spring was slowed.

The daily number of cases, which gradually decreased from early July to mid-August and then increased again, indicates that another wave of epidemics began in mid-summer.

“Our study confirms that the current second wave of epidemics was not a continuation of the chains of infection that formed in the spring and spread in Hungary. On the contrary, after the opening of the border, the reintroductions took place in the middle of the year. summer “, explains Balázs Papp. According to published epidemiological data, the proportion of new cases introduced from abroad was high in July and early August.

“Our research also notes that, in contrast to the spring wave, cases introduced in July-August have developed significant chains of transmission, and the increase in daily cases seen in early fall is typically due to these early-introduction events. There is a significant difference between the two stages of the epidemic. That the clades in wave 2 are much more spread out in time (it can take several months for a variant of the virus to spread) and that each clade generally includes many more infected people In addition, the samples within a clade generally come from several counties, so while the first wave remained local, while in the second there was already a clade with national dimension, especially in the Northeast region, which confirms the role internal dismantling in the period (summer) in which the emphasis was still on curbing imports from abroad (Differences between The spring and fall waves well reflect the fact that epidemiology plays an important role in preventing or slowing the spread of infections. ” Bálint Kintses explained the most important conclusions that can be drawn from viral genomic analyzes.

Why is it still important to keep track of mutations?

Although the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus gene pool is constantly changing, it is this change is a relatively slow process compared to the genetic modifications of other viruses, such as the influenza virus.

As a result, the researchers say that vaccine development is not yet at risk.

A notable mutation has been shown to allow the virus to bypass the immune system. Although this variant of the mutant virus (N439K) is currently present in 12 countries, it has fortunately only appeared in one sample in Hungary so far and has not spread.

The full investigation can be read by clicking here.

Cover Image Source: Getty Images