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Russian foreign policy was made impossible by the war in Nagorno-Karabakh after Turkey saw fit to flow into the old conflict on the Azerbaijani side. Moscow can choose between very bad and even worse options.
The most important element in the escalation of the conflict around Nagorno-Karabakh (Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh) is revealed by the fact that three weeks after the outbreak of fighting, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan asked his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to negotiate the case, Maxim Suchov. from an article by his professor published in the Moscow Times. The mountainous area, where Armenians predominate, is surrounded by Azerbaijan. The region has declared itself independent, but the international community sees Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. During previous wars, Armenians also occupied Azerbaijani territories in the area, so the main objective of the Azerbaijani army in the war that broke out a few weeks ago was to take them back.
Novelty
Before that, the balance of power in the region changed radically, as Turkey entered the conflict on the Azerbaijani side, emphasizing Muslim kinship, after observing events from afar for decades. Russia, which is traditionally an ally of Armenia, and the parties are also bound by a military treaty, according to which if an external attack hit Armenian territory, the Russians would have to provide military assistance, thus finding themselves in a position.
Both Erdogan and Putin have called for a diplomatic solution to end the fighting, and see the need for the so-called Minsk Group (in which Moscow and Ankara are represented in addition to the European powers and the US). Before the dialogue between the two leaders, the Russian foreign affairs pointed out to the Turkish side that they had not examined well the appearance of mercenaries trained in Syria and Libya on the Azerbaijani side. The objection was prompted by the Russian Air Force’s launching of attacks on the Syrian Turkish base, which the military assumed was one of the mercenary training grounds.
There was no answer
Before that, the Azerbaijani army had destroyed the Armenian tactical missile system, in response to which the Russian army should have entered the war under a defense agreement between the parties, but did not. Sergei Lavrov went to the foreign minister only to recommend the deployment of peacekeeping forces in the local Karabakh, in which, of course, Russian soldiers would serve.
The Minsk Group has announced that it will present a proposal for the gradual return of the occupied Azerbaijani territories in the region, while ensuring the security of Nagorno-Karabakh and ensuring a reliable connection with Armenia. This solution would go into effect until the status of the area was permanently established. In general, according to an article in the Moscow Times, the Russian reaction indicates the insecurity of the Kremlin: they do not know how to deal with the change in situation due to the Turkish intervention.
Bad and worse
From the Russian point of view, the basic situation is already bad. The Azerbaijani leadership with a Turkish tailwind will not stop the attacks until a political solution acceptable to him emerges or a Russian intervention on the Armenian side stops the Azerbaijani soldiers and Turkish mercenaries. If the Russians intervene, it could ruin it for decades. Russo-Azerbaijani relations, if not, and Azerbaijan will regain the occupied territories, see Turkey as its main international partner instead of Russia, and will be encouraged to regain power over Nagorno-Karabakh by force.
If the Kremlin forced an agreement on the warring parties that was unacceptable to both Azerbaijani and Armenian elites, it would encourage pro-Turkish political forces within the former and pro-Western political forces within the latter, again weakening their influence in the Caucasus. zone.
Mortgage loan
Presumably Erdogan has come to terms with the emergence of Turkey in the traditionally Russian-influenced region for the time being, as evidenced by his willingness to negotiate Nagorno-Karabakh and the Russian government’s hope that the Turkish side can contribute from constructively solve the problem.
At the same time, the Russians were already able to learn on the battlefield in Syria that any deal with the Turks was like a mortgage. With their help, the ownership of your apartment can be arranged in the long term, but therefore you have to pay the fees to the bank again and again, that is, an outside participant ties a long-term hand around your own house, says the Moscow Times reporter.
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