[ad_1]
Subscribe to the Epidemic Newsletter
We send you what you need to know about the epidemic every day of the week. Sign up and take care of each other!
He updated the weekly mortality data, which we missed so much yesterday, and also sent the November flash report to the Central Statistical Office.
According to this, 15,366 people lost their lives in Hungary in November. The difference is huge compared to last November’s data: 5,279 more people have died now than a year ago. That’s a 52 percent difference.
The CSO writes that
This is the highest monthly death rate since January 2000,
which was later caused by the peak of the seasonal influenza pandemic.
Already in October a significant increase was visible compared to last year. In its report at the time, the CSO stated that “this may be due to the increasing number of deaths caused by coronavirus infection.” This explanation is no longer included in the new quick report for November.
While there is no other very obvious reason, there was no flu pandemic in November.
Weekly averages for the past five years and mortality figures for the current weeks look like this:
In processing weekly deaths, the CSO reached week 47 (Nov 16-22). It was a mysterious week when the number of official coronavirus victims suddenly slowed after the previous sharp rise and then stalled, while the number of people hospitalized and ventilated continued to rise.
This is also apparently supported by the CSO figures, but it is not that simple.
According to current data, 3,648 people died in Hungary in week 47 (the statistical office does not indicate causes of death), compared with 3,745 in the previous week. In other words, even fewer people died in Hungary this week.
However, as the OSC further cleanses the data, the number of subsequent deaths will periodically increase. This is also what happened last week with the data.
In practice, this seems to come out with a weekly sip. In week 45 (November 2-8), for example, 3,356 people died, according to the first report. However, there are now 3,454 deaths on the OSC chart for that week. That is almost 100 more cases.
For week 46, last week 3,642 deaths were recorded, now 3,745. That is a difference of more than a hundred.
At the moment, the latest data for week 47 is 3648. Due to this methodology, it will almost certainly increase after further cleaning of the data.
But the 3,648 deaths reported in this way are also well above the 47-week average of the past five years (2,468). Only in week 47, the excess mortality was 1,180 people. During these seven days, the operative strain reported 701 victims of coronavirus. In other words, there is a surplus of almost 500 people compared to previous years, which, according to official reports, cannot be attributed to the coronavirus. In other places, it is difficult.
If we look not only at this week 47, but at the beginning of the second wave, the period since the end of August, the difference between the deaths of recent years and the current overfishing is already very large.
A 36-47. weeks, an average of 28,517 people have died in the last 5 years. This year in this period 34 123 people. The extra death toll is 5,606 people. The number of officially reported victims of the epidemic during this period was 3,276.
The gap between additional deaths and official victims of the epidemic in the second wave for November 22 is 2,330.
Such a great difference, although not common, has also occurred in other countries, in the spring, for example in Italy, Spain and the Netherlands, and now in autumn in Bulgaria or Poland.
Given that now in November there was little other reason than the epidemic that would increase the number of deaths more than the average, it can be assumed that many victims of covid were not included in the official statistics, presumably because they were not even analyzed. The epidemic statistics may also have dropped. As can be explained, the care of severe non-covidity patients is also hampered in the medical care that is switched to epidemic mode.
The CSO summarizes the deaths in Hungary with a delay of four weeks. The number of daily victims of the epidemic already shows that additional deaths compared to recent years will remain very high.
[ad_2]
