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Between 2 and 8 November, 3,356 people died in Hungary, an increase of 40% compared to the same periods in previous years. This means that the coronavirus epidemic is having an increasing impact on mortality.
The figure above shows that in the last few years we have seen around 2400-2500 deaths at the moment, but now the numbers are much more unfavorable. The data can be compared to a very serious flu epidemic sweeping the country, while the flu is not news or ashes yet. In other words, the excess mortality is the result of a coronavirus epidemic.
Officially, just over 600 people died that week from the consequences of the coronavirus, while the number of deaths per week is about 900 times the normal number of deaths for the period.
After a month, the number of deaths has risen much faster than official deaths from coronavirus, so we can be increasingly confident that many more people will actually die from coronavirus than official data suggests, and the virus could have an adverse effect on all other benefits. .
Basically, the columns showing excess mortality should also fluctuate along the orange line. It should move below the line, once up, but basically no trend, if there is no other driving force in the second wave of the epidemic than the number of deaths in previous years, apart from the coronavirus (and the probability). However, it can be seen that in recent weeks, excess mortality has consistently exceeded the orange line. There are two possible explanations for this:
- not all coronavirus deaths are included in the official statistics (die from coronavirus but do not have a positive test, so it is not among coronavirus deaths),
- the coronavirus loses so much health capacity that there is not enough left for other patients, so they can die of another disease (not a coronavirus).
Obviously, a combination of these is conceivable, or someone can die from being hospitalized not with a coronavirus but with another disease but contracting the infection in the meantime; and there may be those who do not really dare to see a doctor for fear of an epidemic. All of this is not surprising, as many countries have higher excess mortality during this period than the official death toll from the coronavirus. The researchers explain the situation with the two previous factors and a combination of them.
In the coming weeks, we’ll see even higher weekly death rates, as the number of coronavirus deaths per week was officially 600 in early November, but is now more than 900.
Cover image: Getty Images
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