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In Hungary, there will be no decline, but growth this year, the central bank maintains its growth forecast of 2-3 percent, said György Matolcsy, governor of the Hungarian National Bank (MNB) in the Sunday newspaper on Kossuth Radio.
He added that successive European growth forecasts reflect a variety of approaches. Two financial and economic institutions that deal with European forecasts are more optimistic than the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Hungarian government: the Polish central bank and the MNB.
They boast a quick drop and a fast rebound – that is, a “V-shaped” economic impact, he said. Matolcsy’s outlook is particularly optimistic, a few days ago the Finance Minister, Mihály Varga, also spoke of a bigger recession than the government had expected until now, and the EU’s forecasts are more somber than the government’s.
The first trimester will not be bad, the second trimester will produce quite horrible figures, and the third and fourth trimesters “will avoid” previously lost performance. That is why I dare say that there will be a 2-3 percent increase in Hungary in 2020, he explained.
According to him, this is reinforced by the fact that the vast majority of the Hungarian economy is operating, even in the low weeks of April.
There are endangered areas in crisis, he said, adding tourism and closely related hospitality, or part of the cultural, events and transportation sector.
He called for optimism based on the facts, which they hope will be reflected in the next GDP in the first quarter.
He noted that in the first quarter, Hungarian consumption had a 10% surplus on retail sales and consumption compared to the euro area. It is also a position that strengthens competitiveness.
He said the crisis caused by the coronavirus epidemic had hit the Hungarian economy in good shape, but had received a “hit”. Therefore, the central bank again announced the Growth Loan Program (FGS) introduced in 2013 on even more favorable terms. FGS Go! call. So far, financial institutions have signed dozens of contracts and expect to conclude thousands or tens of thousands of such contracts with companies. The companies used the loan mainly for wages, in the summer months the investment and development objective stands out, he said.
The central bank bond purchase program, launched this week, was a success, achieving in a few days an effect that might not be possible for months: it increased yields on government bonds from 3.3% to 2%, he explained. (via MTI)
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