Major transformations in Europe’s property markets: losers of winners, winners of losers

The Eurostat property market price index shows the evolution of the prices of new and second-hand homes in a combined way. 2019 IV. In the third quarter, the aggregate index of house prices in the EU Member States was 122% in 2015, while the index of house prices in the euro area was 120%, that is, the House prices in the European Union increased approximately 20% in five years.

There is not much difference between the EU average and the euro area average in price increases due to the fact that the euro area represents more than 70% of the total population in terms of population and presumably in terms of sales. In the case of Hungary, however, we are not saying anything new with the fact that in recent years the price increase has been much higher than the EU average, about 70 percent compared to 2015.

2019. III. Based on Eurostat methodology, the value of the Consolidated House Price Index in Hungary, calculated on the basis of 2015, stood at exactly 165 per cent. After the notable increase in the first quarter, the second quarter. In the third quarter, the value of the Hungarian Consolidated House Price Index increased modestly. and preliminary quarterly data also decreased slightly. A IV. The consolidated house price index for the third quarter fell 2.9 percent, but this is not a unique phenomenon. In addition to Hungary, house prices fell in 10 other countries in the last quarter of last year compared to the previous quarter.

• The quarterly price decline was more than 3 percent in Denmark and Cyprus.
• It was above 1 percent in Hungary
• It was less than 1 percent in Spain, Finland, Norway, Belgium, the United Kingdom *, Italy and Slovenia.

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However, in most countries, even in the last quarter of last year, prices increased compared to the previous quarter.

• The price increase in Malta exceeded 3 percent (3.5 percent)
• It was above 2% in Croatia, Estonia, Poland, Luxembourg, Iceland *, Slovakia, Germany and the Czech Republic
• And more than 1 percent in Austria, Romania, Bulgaria, the Netherlands and Lithuania
• It was below 1 percent in Portugal, France, Latvia and Sweden

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However, if you look at the rate of price increase from year to year, it says more. Based on this

There are three countries where prices have increased by more than 10 percent in one year: Luxembourg (11.1%), Slovakia (10.9%) and Croatia (10.0%).

Due to the decline of the past two quarters, the former Hungarian lead rider produced only an 8.7 percent price increase annually, which was enough for eighth place. Between the last quarter of 2018 and 2019, in Cyprus alone, house prices fell in the EU, where prices fell by almost 5 percent.

However, there is another list in which Hungary is at the top for the last two years, and this is the maximum of the quarterly price change. Between the last quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019, prices rose an average of 8.5 percent. The largest quarterly decline occurred in Cyprus, with a price drop of almost 6 percent between the second and third quarters of last year.

Also, it’s worth seeing where, how balanced the price change was. In 10 of the countries surveyed, prices have increased in all quarters of the past two years, but there are a number of countries, including Hungary, where the increase has been interrupted by a decrease of one or two quarters.

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Although the largest year-on-year decline has been in Cyprus, Italy is also among the drivers, where there has been no significant price increase since the crisis, with prices fluctuating in the range of -1 to 1 percent quarterly. Finally, it is worth looking at the Czech Republic, Portugal and Hungary, which have often been on the podium in recent years in terms of annual price increases, but now in all three countries the price increase has slowed by to a greater or lesser extent or has begun to decrease.

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* The UK is still included in the Eurostat database despite Brexit, as is Iceland, but data is rarely received from Greece despite membership.

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