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The secret history of the 2018 elections in 84 color pages.
I’ll buy it
Not to mention getting into the same river twice! Four years ago, half the world was in awe that Donald Trump, even by a hair, could win in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. This was surprising because Hillary Clinton’s staff were so confident of the Democratic candidate’s victory that they didn’t campaign much here, and the pollsters were so spontaneous that they didn’t do any research.
Even compared to 2016, the pollsters were very wrong
Now pollsters have been investigating, but they cannot be proud of their results. By all polls, Biden had an absolute chance in Wisconsin and Minnesota, and Pennsylvania also reported Biden’s narrow but stable 4.7 percent average.
By comparison, under current standing, Trump leads with nearly 700,000 votes in Pennsylvania, a good 300,000 in Michigan, and a good 100,000 in Wisconsin.
That, of course, can still change, with low turnout in Michigan and Pennsylvania, plus the number of votes cast on Election Day being counted for the first time in both states, suggesting that Trump will be the frontrunner. The president has been campaigning against letter voting for months, which is why Republican voters generally vote in person on Election Day. That is, Biden can get a majority of the votes that have not yet been added. Is that enough for the translation? I’m not convinced that Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania is big enough.
Although Biden is ready to win in Arizona, and perhaps Nevada, to win, he would have to win in at least two of the three Great Lakes states, whichever is ultimately equal.
Nothing came together for Biden
How did this turn out? It was an extremely interesting night, although in the end a relatively traditional electoral map came to an end. Democrats had high hopes of winning in Florida. Two-thirds of registered voters in the state had already voted against it before Election Day. And while we had no information on how they voted, here it is revealed which registered voting parties have already voted. On that basis, 120,000 more Democrats voted before the election than the number of Republicans. Compared to this, it soon became clear that Trump was in the lead, largely due to the fact that in Miami-Dade County, where a large number of Cuban and Venezuelan immigrants live, Biden fared far worse than Hillary. Clinton. Clinton won two-thirds to one-third here four years ago, and Biden today just eight percentage points. Trump was only able to get 150,000 more votes here than in 2016.
Part of the night, Biden seemed to be able to recover in Ohio, but it soon became clear that the first partial results would likely come from processing the ballots by letter. As the processing rate increased, so did Biden’s leadership, then at one point Trump backtracked and finally threw out so long that his victory was certain.
Finally, we still have to talk about a surprising state. In Georgia, according to the current position, Trump continues to lead by 240,000 votes, but prosecution is low in those counties where Democrats are strongest. Here, Biden has an even greater than theoretical chance of translating, which would be a rather surprising result after Trump was able to win without a hitch in two neighboring states, Florida and North Carolina, where polls say he is at a greater disadvantage.
When can the final result be revealed?
In Georgia, they can finish counting in a day or two. In Pennsylvania, postal ballots mailed through Election Day are in principle accepted. In Wisconsin, in principle, they can end up counting in the afternoon in Hungarian time. Michigan is confident the votes will roll through Friday. In Arizona and Nevada, everyone is confident that the end result will be achieved today.
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