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Biden bekeményített
The presidential chair under Joe Biden had barely warmed up, sending several seemingly very drastic messages to Russia and President Vladimir Putin.
- After his first phone call, he said: The United States would no longer turn a blind eye to Russia’s “activities”,
- and shortly after B-1 bombers sent to Norway,
- or stopped the withdrawal of American troops from Germany is.
- The North Stream, which is being built jointly with the EU, condemnedt two gas pipeline and the imprisonment of opposition politician Alexei Navalny.
- He even began to ponder it sanctions actors involved in the construction of the pipeline and Russia as a whole for its manipulative activities against the US electoral system.
Of course, Russian President Vladimir Putin did not leave Biden’s “muscle” unanswered.
- Russia has accused Western countries (including the United States) of support the protests against Alexei Navalny,
- or they can try interfere in the Russian elections of 2022 is.
- Also, Putin mobilized the russian air force: launched a series of exercises with its own bombers over international waters and announced that they would use their fighter jets to fight the bombers.
An important side note is that the relationship between the EU and Russia has continued to intensify in recent months: the EU recently imposed new sanctions on Russia over the Navalny case, in response to which Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said they were ready to break all ties. with Russia. -with. Anthony Blinken, Secretary of State Joe Biden, was also involved in the decision-making process on sanctions.
Message to voters and the international community
In the minds of many observers of the facts, the question rightly arises as to why Joe Biden is “provoking” the Russians, what is the purpose of this pressure.
In summary, these are the main reasons:
- American voters, especially Democratic voters, have a very low opinion of Russia, so nationwide, Joe Biden can build political capital for the verbal attack of the Putin regime. Russia and the United States do not have as significant a trade intertwining as China and the United States, so it can paint an enemy image of American voters without significant consequences.
- Send a message abroad with tough actions that The United States is ready to once again confront its allies firmly and act against its opponents, and this could deter other countries from trying to undermine the international interests of the United States.
- Biden, by the way, is an old opponent of the Putin regime; Even as Vice President Obama, he has had numerous run-ins with the Russian government, and his family has had business interests in Ukraine for some time.
So the Putin-Biden opposition did not start yesterday. As early as 2009, as Vice President of the United States, Joe Biden said that Russia’s economy was dying due to his flawed political decision. In 2011, he openly opposed Putin’s reelection, in fact, he allegedly said at a trial in the eyes of the Russian president that he believed he “had no soul”, and then bragged to the US media about it.
Following the Crimean crisis, Biden coordinated US action to help Ukraine and said Russia’s aggression
you will pay for it with blood and money.
His son, Hunter Biden, also served on the board of a Ukrainian energy company.
After Biden handed over the vice president to Mike Pence, he was pushed into the background himself, but Anti-Russian rhetoric, on the other hand, only increased with the Trump presidency, especially on the Democratic side.
- According to NBC research from 2019, in 2015, 26% of Democratic voters still had a positive image of Russia, and by 2019, that proportion had dropped to 17%.
- For Republicans, the opposite trend was observed: in 2015, 19% of them rated Russia positively, while in 2019, that number had risen to 30%.
The same poll also reveals that Democrats view Russia and Republicans China as America’s greatest geopolitical enemy.
It can be seen, then, that the Americans have never had a very good image of Russia, but there has been a drastic increase in the number of Democratic supporters of Russia among the Democratic Party supporters.
The main reason for this is that after the 2016 presidential elections, the Democratic Party began to accuse that the defeat of our candidate, Hillary Clinton, was caused by Russia interfering in the electoral process with hackers and “repeating” the victory of Donald Trump.
Investigations into the interference revealed that the Russians had indeed intervened, primarily through misinformation on social media and hacking into the Democratic Party’s IT systems, but the votes had not been altered and Trump had not played against Vladimir Putin’s people to obtain the victory.
Nevertheless countless Democratic voters still regarded Donald Trump as “Putin’s man,” In some cases, this belief went so far as to accuse the president of being a KGB / FSB man for decades.
In such an environment, it is not surprising that Joe biden During the 2019/2020 election campaign, he placed great emphasis on plowing Russia. He has repeatedly promised to take tougher action against Russia as president. and he often criticized Trump, whom he repeatedly called Putin’s puppet or pup, for having deliberately treated the Putin regime with a gloved hand until now.
IN A SPEECH, JOE BIDEN NAMED RUSSIA AS THE GREATEST SECURITY THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES.
In the end, of course, the fact that Russia began a major geopolitical expansion in the mid-2010s., both economically and militarily. The 2014 Ukraine crisis, the annexation of Crimea, and the Syrian civil war were a clear message to the world that Russia had returned to the international chessboard, and that was threatens the geopolitical dominance of the United States.
The United States and the EU have responded to the aggressive Russian expansion with broad economic sanctions, reinforced even by the Trump administration and the meeting of Congress under the president’s mandate. Trump, of course, has been widely criticized for reluctantly sanctioning Russia and signing only measures that had limited impact on the Russian economy, but it is clear that Russia (temporarily) stopped the overt and aggressive interference that began in the mid-2010s as a result of the sanctions.
Nonetheless, Trump’s domestic political opponents, including the Democratic Party and Joe Biden, viewed the president’s action as weak and weak and began pushing for stricter measures to ensure America’s geopolitical dominance.
Finally, it is also important to note that Biden can safely visit Russia, as the country is not an important market for American products and the economic relationship between the two countries has steadily deteriorated since the 2014 sanctions. Furthermore, Russia it still has a significant trade surplus with the United States.
Russia is more dependent on the United States than vice versa, but I would probably survive too if the relationship were to break completely from one moment to the next (this is just a hypothetical scenario, unrealistic for that to happen). Russia is the 10th largest market in the United States, and vice versa.
How long can the situation get worse?
While some concerned voices, mostly secular, say that Joe Biden is trying to pressure NATO to wage war against Russia, the situation is actually not that drastic.
However, it is still questionable how long Joe Biden is willing to stretch the rope. increasingly it seems that US stocks will have more smoke than flames.
If Russia does not move, the following measures are realistic by the United States:
- Joe Biden instructs that increase the military presence around the Russian sphere of interest, and a series of spectacular military exercises will take place within NATO,
- a large-scale verbal and economic attack is launched against Russia’s international business interests, for example opposing projects like Nord Stream 2,
- additional penalties against the internal business of Vladimir Putin or Russian state companies.
And Russia is likely to try to toughen up and not provoke more US sanctions under the Biden government, so we are not likely to expect measures such as supporting Ukrainian separatists or annexing Crimea.
The Putin government is also aware that an equally aggressive action would produce a very harsh response from the United StatesSo in the next four years, Russia is not expected to try to intervene militarily anywhere. Of course, however, President Putin will not make his country disappear from the international stage, but he is They will seek to increase their influence through soft means, such as the distribution of vaccines against the coronavirus or other epidemic protection, and its military strength will be used for peacekeeping missions.
Russia will respond to US military actions and sanctions with proportionate, spectacular, but generally pointless measures., which has been observed during the events of recent weeks.
Putin considers it important to show a strong leadership image to his constituents and to Russia’s international partners, but Russia has no interest in escalating tensions with the EU or the United States due to its relatively small economic position exposed to the West:
In general, therefore, the most likely scenario is that cold relations, sometimes provocative COMMUNICATION, INTERNATIONAL TRADE WAR of varying intensity and sanctions give and take FEATURES AND BUT ANY DAMAGE scared, turned into open warfare.
Cover image: Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images
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