Is Trump still winning big at the last minute? There are several signs that this will not be the case.

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Biden’s lead was greater than Clinton’s

US President Donald Trump is significantly behind Democratic challenger Joe Biden in the November 3 presidential election. If everything went according to the polls, Biden would win the election by a large majority, leading almost everywhere in the so-called battlefield states in terms of the result of the vote.

The proportion of the national vote distribution is not decisive for the outcome of the elections, so we do not present it now. The election takes place state by state: whoever wins the elections in each member state, acquires the entire electorate in that state. If we look at the current polls in all Member States, we can expect 358-180 Electoral College jobs in favor of Biden. (The breakdown by member state can be found on the second page of the article, and the electoral system was presented in our previous analysis.)

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Biden’s lead was greater than Clinton’s

It’s often said in current polls that we really need to be wary of them because Donald Trump was significantly underrated in 2016, and there are still plenty of indications that he is among Republican voters.

• on the one hand, the proportion of people who hide is higher,
• and a greater willingness to choose.

However, a comparison of the current and 2016 polls shows that Trump is far behind now than he was then.

To illustrate this, we have collected the most important battlefield states and presented the polls 4 years ago compared to the result at that time and the polls now. The chart below shows the average evolution of the latest pre-election polls in 2016 in the key battlefield states compared to the most recent current polls. Dark blue is marked by Biden’s lead, sky blue by Hillary Clinton’s lead in 2016, Donald Trump’s lead (when measured) is orange.

As is clear, polls show that Joe Biden’s current lead in all member states is greater than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016, and there are several states where Trump’s 2016 lead has turned into a Biden lead this year.

Overall, then, it is clearly the case that Donald Trump’s support for his Democratic opponent, according to polls, has been much lower today than four years ago.

Of course, all of this means nothing if the surveys are inaccurate and, in 2016, they were absolutely inaccurate. The figure below shows how the election result turned out relative to the average of the most recent pre-election polls. As you can see, Trump has won every major battlefield state despite being led by Hillary Clinton in 5 of those places, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania largely.

You can also see that Trump was also underestimated where the polls took him (with the exception of Texas, where exactly the result hit). If everything had turned out according to the polls, Hillary Clinton would have moved to the White House, but as we know, it did not.

Now we should be wrong for Trump to win

From the above figure it is clear that the polls were much more inaccurate than the 2-3% margin of error indicated before the elections. The figure below shows to what extent the surveys were wrong in each Member State and in favor of whom: Not surprisingly, all polls estimate that Clinton’s relative support for Trump is higher.

It also appears that in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan, the discrepancy between the average of the latest pre-election polls and the actual result was quite staggering, between 5 and 7 percentage points.

But even if the polls were that bad now, Trump wouldn’t have had enough to win either.

The figure below compares the 2016 errors to the 2020 polls. It appears Michigan and Wisconsin would be pulled by Biden even if the polls were mistakenly as large as 4 years ago. The same would happen in Georgia and Arizona.

Along with Ohio, which is already Trump, the president could stay with Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, but still he would not have a majority in the electoral college because Biden has more electoral votes from states where the victory of the Democratic candidate is certain that the of Trump. state electoral votes that can be reserved in advance.

The Electoral College position would be 294-244 in favor of Biden.

Of course, we assume the above scenario that the surveys are as incorrect as in 2016. However, some states may have a greater error than they did then, such as Arizona or Georgia, and by then, Wisconsin and Michigan may already have a smaller error than in 2016 because those states would no longer matter. In Georgia and Arizona, it would be enough to make 2.5 percentage points more wrong for Trump to be president, so we can’t talk about elections at all.

It would be surprising if the error was so great even now.

However, there are indicators that suggest that we cannot expect as much error now as 4 years ago. First, Hillary Clinton’s support has always been characterized by a lack of a consistent lead over Trump in important battlefield states, while Biden has been able to maintain a 3-5% point lead on a continuous basis, as shown. in the RealClearPolitics figure:

This suggests that the position of Biden voters (or protest voters against Trump) is less volatile than 4 years ago, improving the accuracy of the polls. In addition, before the election, Clinton’s lead was trending markedly downward in important battlefield states, which we don’t see now.

Nor should we forget that the votes currently cast (over 80 million votes) have already exceeded half the turnout in 2016, and polls show that the vast majority of mail-in votes come from Democratic voters. therefore, we suspect that the willingness to vote among them is greater than four years ago. It is also important to note that while four years ago many states had measured greater support for Clinton, even though it was below 50%, Biden had already crossed that line in several states or was approaching it strongly.

We don’t dare to predict yet, however, considering the above, there is the best chance that Biden will win the election, but probably not by as large a majority as polls show.