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The opposition coalition parties (Democratic Coalition, Jobbik, LMP, Momentum, MSZP, Dialogue) have been worried for months about nominating a candidate for prime minister. Being a party politician? A veteran with political experience or a person who is outside or above the parties?
Who has the qualities to fight Viktor Orbán?
In most cases, three names are pronounced:
- Klára Dobrev, Member of the European Parliament for the Democratic Coalition,
- Péter Márki-Zay, Mayor of Hódmezővásárhely, President of the All and Hungary Movement
- Mayor Gergely Karácsony, co-chair of the Dialogue.
Klára Dobrev, the hope of the DK
Even before the 2018 parliamentary elections, there was a demand for Klára Dobrev’s candidacy for prime minister from DK and MSZP supporters and among the left-wing intelligentsia, but at that time she still remained in the shadow of her husband, Ferenc Gyurcsány. The party then had little reason to rejoice in chewing on the outcome of its elections, as they did not slip much past the threshold of merely 5 percent (5.38 percent).
However, it was a mistake to bury the former socialist prime minister, Ferenc Gyurcsány, and his party. It is true that they benefited from the fact that two of the best performing opposition parties in the 2018 elections, Jobbik, which became the second strongest party, were plunged into the organizational crisis of the LMP, which achieved the best result. of its history.
The DK skillfully seized the opportunity and the European Parliament elections clearly returned the party to the party, so much that it was ahead in the opposition ranking. By all reviews, the fact that Klara Dobrev was at the top of DK’s EP chart also contributed to that.
The person of Ferenc Gyurcsány is indisputably the cohesive force of the DK, he is the essence of the DK, the party’s political community was built around her. Ambitiously, it is also the glass ceiling of the party.
Many of the voters critical of the government still remember the period of socialist rule marked by its name, the autumn speech, the events of 2006 and the economic crisis of 2008.
No matter how many times opposition parties have approached in recent years, how to deal with Ferenc Gyurcsány has always been a cardinal question. So it was a good tactical move for his wife, assuming the role of a committed European politician, to step out of it and become the DK’s driving force for the European Parliament elections, while Ferenc Gyurcsány took a step back. .
There have been various arguments in favor of bringing and pushing Klára Dobrev to the forefront. As a Member of the European Parliament, Vice President of the European Parliament, you have been given the opportunity to use your influential positions to build your own political character.
It was already shown in the European Parliament elections that Klára Dobrev could address voters beyond the DK camp, but even though she came out of the shadow of Ferenc Gyurcsány, they still saw her as his wife.
The government side constantly refers to her as the wife of the former socialist prime minister, who can say anything, there is the “Gyurcsányista blinks”. The other attack surface of the character assassin is that he is a descendant of the Tiny family (daughter of Tiny Piroska), which is prominent in the Kádár regime, thus deliberately equating himself and communism.
Klára Dobrev’s political potential is indicated by the fact that the government side does not accidentally turn its cannons and constantly fire at them.
His room for maneuver and judgment within the opposition is rather determined by the fact that his wife, Ferenc Gyurcsány, cannot be spat on or swallowed by the coalition parties.
On the one hand, according to opinion polls, Ferenc Gyurcsány’s party is inescapable (it may be around 10-15 percent now), and on the other hand, the coordinated cooperation of opposition parties also shows their commitment to action. united against the government side. But this does not mean that all actors can support Klara Dobrev as a common candidate for prime minister. At the same time, the order of strength of each side will be a decisive factor at the opposition negotiating table, and the Czech Republic is doing well in this area.
Péter Márki-Zay enters the ring from the right
According to Péter Márki-Zay, who disbanded as a comet in Hódmezővásárhely before the 2018 parliamentary elections, Klára Dobrev may win a pre-election from the opposition, but as a joint candidate for prime minister she can accept it instead of taking him into the opposition coalition. You have commented on this multiple times in recent weeks. At the same time, Péter Márki-Zay, who was twice elected mayor of Hódmezővásárhely, has already indicated that he would like to stand as a candidate for prime minister in a pre-election.
The mayor of Hódmezővásárhely has no party, but his values allow him to be placed in the space of the opposition, that is, among right-wing conservatives disillusioned with Fidesz.
His first victory in 2018 was helped by the fact that Jobbik, who defined himself as the center-right, deployed his entire network of activists in the Hódmezővásárhely campaign.
Péter Márki-Zay’s success gave the opposition hope in the run-up to the parliamentary elections and also made the mayor a nationally known politician. In 2018, he established the Everyone’s Movement in Hungary (MMM) with the aim of having some kind of umbrella organization for the opposition. In this sense, its existence became obsolete for the municipal elections of 2019, since the opposition parties were able to work together without the MMM, starting with the merger.
Today, the Movement is a gathering place for stateless politicians and a means of enforcing Péter Márki-Zay’s personal brand.
The mayor of Hódmezővásárhely is in no way unreasonably ambitious to compete for the joint candidacy for prime minister. In addition to being among the first to speak out about the need for full cooperation from the opposition, Jobbik and right-wing conservative intellectuals who reject Fidesz but cannot identify with current opposition parties also find him suitable for support.
Christmas Gergely just tactic?
Péter Márki-Zay has said several times before that Gergely Karácsony should also run for the joint candidacy for prime minister. The last of the possible three so far has steadfastly refused to join the ring, despite being asked to do so by others, regardless of the match’s sympathy. Of course, this can even be a tactic.
The government side fires all the ammunition at those who appear to be a potential player in the opposition. Mark-Zay and Christmas are also among the most popular opposition politicians, who have topped popularity charts based on various research.
Gergely Karácsony is a true political survivor. Despite his curveless career, he still doesn’t show the image of a polished and polished politician.
Gábely Karácsony’s charisma is based on giving the impression of being a kind and understanding person.
Sometimes that is enough to make a politician stand out. Dancing on the brink of the mayoral election, if he had fallen there, he would be at the end of his political career. However, with his victory, new perspectives have now opened up for him.
There are international examples of how the path of a successful mayor or mayor can lead higher (Boris Johnson led London and Recep Tayyip Erdogan led Istanbul before moving up). However, Christmas is still at the beginning of his term as mayor, which would be difficult to assess as a resounding success. No one could have foreseen the epidemic, but it could be involved that a trench would form between the government side and the mayor.
Gergely Karácsony’s electoral support may be dubious from the point of view that, as mayor, his political room for maneuver is limited to Budapest, which does not necessarily make him a prominent figure at the national level. It is also no coincidence that as a candidate for prime minister of the MSZP Dialogue he failed in 2018. However, a closed and successful cycle of mayors may still be the next step in the Christmas political race in the future.
The future may already be the runner-up
In the coming months, it may become clear who Klára Dobrev, Péter Márki-Zay or Gergely Karácsony may be the possible candidates for prime minister of the opposition coalition, or whose name / whose name can be included in the hat. There would already be candidates outside the coalition parties, but the details of a pre-selection process (who can initiate it and on what basis) are not yet known, it is only specified that on October 23, 2021, voters will need to know the candidates .
Top image: Karácsony Gergely, Dobrev Klára, Márki-Zay Péter – Index
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