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Viktor Zsiday, one of Hungary’s most respected portfolio managers, came to a brutal conclusion about the government’s epidemic management strategy in his post today. According to him, Viktor Orbán has only one goal: to retain power and win the 2022 elections. The key to this is to keep the economy running, schools open, adults work. Given that the key to electoral results is a suitable economic environment, it must be maintained at all costs.
Viktor Zsiday believes that if the virus’s reproduction rate stays around 1.3, it will spread fairly slowly and more importantly, sustainably. The goal is to achieve flock immunity, which requires that 30 percent of the population, or three million people, be infected. Once you have this, the virus cannot spread any further, so it will go away on its own, which is what the vaccine helps. Whenever possible, this should be achieved without the healthcare system collapsing in the meantime. Whether or not this will work is not yet known, writes the economist.
Viktor Zsiday continues: If the master plan says the virus will peak in November-December, it will fall into a descending branch at the end of January. Spring and vaccination will allow the government to focus on the recovery of the economy and, in parallel, the relaxation will begin. By the summer, everything is basically back to normal, and all you have to do is move on to the 2022 campaign. This is particularly well complemented by the money included in the EU rescue package.
The most likely scenario, then, is that the virus spreads and peaks in November-December, then declines starting in January, and the economy begins to recover thereafter. The price is 10,000 Hungarians.
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