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A decisive advantage at Fidesz
Using a social media-based questionnaire, 2,000 people were interviewed, revealing that the popularity of Fidesz – KDNP among the total adult population dropped from 34 percent in the previous month to 32 percent. A deviation of 2 percentage points indicates a process that is within the margin of error but has been ongoing since August. Support for ruling parties among commissioned voters also fell by 2 percentage points to 48%.
The IDEA Institute noted that the data they measured showed that Fidesz’s support had returned to pre-corona virus outbreaks, so its benefits in treating the first wave had gradually diminished.
The opposition is stagnant
There was no significant rearrangement in the opposition space. Within the electorate, the Democratic Coalition led by Ferenc Gyurcsány remains the strongest, with 11 percent. DK is followed by Momentum and Jobbik at 7-7 percent. While Momentum has been unable to increase its support for months, Jobbik has strengthened a bit and moved out of the 5-6 percent range, regaining its support from the entire population a year ago. However, there is no change among safe party voters, with Momentum at 10 percent and Jobbik at 8 percent.
Apart from them, only the MSZP would enter parliament independently, representing 5% of the total electorate and 6% among commissioned voters. Socialist support for IDEA research in 2020 remained unchanged throughout the year.
The LMP, Dialogue, Our Country and the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party remain unchanged at 2% of the total population and among the party’s unsuspecting voters. The only exception to this is the LMP, which would be voted on by 3 percent of commissioned voters.
The proportion of those who do not assume their party preference or are not sure of it is 28 percent.
Less, but enough
However, it is difficult to judge the actual state of competition between the ruling parties and the opposition. DK, Jobbik, LMP, Dialogue and MSZP agreed this week to nominate a joint prime ministerial candidate and 106 joint candidates for parliamentary elections within two years. If we look at the support of these allied parties among the entire population, then
the opposition has the support of 34 percent, while the Fidesz-KDNP has the support of 32 percent of the population.
This shows a change in trend, because at the end of October, the balance sheet was pointing in the direction of the ruling parties, which has now changed.
However, Fidesz-KDNP continues to lead among party voters by 2 percentage points, compared to the opposition without Nuestro País and the MKKP.
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