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- Cecília Müller told me in September what would happen
- You were not wrong and you are not wrong now: the situation is getting worse
- It is not yet possible to predict how long it will last
- If we close the country tomorrow, we will still lose many thousands of people.
The second wave of the coronavirus epidemic is currently in a phase of sharp rise, Medical Director Cecília Müller said at a regular corona briefing on October 26. But what does this mean besides maintaining moderation on the day of the dead? In recent days and weeks various estimates and forecasts have been published, it is worth reviewing them in the first round.
Government forecast
On October 13, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán forecast that by November the number of active cases would reach 40,000; that day, the number had risen to more than 27,000. Hungary is doing better as we hit this number last Sunday, that is, October 25. According to our calculations, by November, unfortunately, there will be a lot of 50,000, even 55,000 active infected people. Of course, that alone doesn’t mean much.
On the one hand, Orbán himself did not make any additional comment on what to do if we have 40,000. On the other hand, the number of active cases largely depends on the number of tests performed. This is permanently around 11-12 thousand in Hungary, so the number of positive nights cannot be much above a certain level. If they did between 20 and 30 thousand tests a day, the round number would be gathered much earlier.
The chief physician gave a more accurate and important prognosis than the prime minister in late September. Then, in one of the crown announcements, he said:
Now is the time. And a few days ago, Müller said, the epidemic appears to be coming to an end. Taking this last statement literally, it’s particularly bad news for the future. While we tried not to enter the war of numbers that Müller resented and asked certain media outlets to exercise restraint, it is difficult to ignore what the experts say and what the numbers show.
As for the death toll, the medical director said that the death toll examined up to September this year was lower than last year’s result for the same phase. This, in turn, means nothing, since, as Müller himself pointed out, as quoted above, the number of deaths will actually increase now.
Mortality rate
The death rate cannot be analyzed by mere multiplication, but it can be assumed that approximately 130,000 of our compatriots die each year, which is an average of 356 lives per day. Compared to a soft hand, the reality shows much greater fluctuation, as the number of deaths generally increases during winter.
Müller also pointed out a few weeks ago that it is not the daily mortality figures that are important, but rather the weekly totals should be examined. This is also an important comment because the CSO also uses a weekly breakdown, which somewhat compensates for daily fluctuations. According to data from the statistical office, at the end of September, looking at the average numbers of the last few months, 2,400 of our compatriots died every week. This can be a kind of relationship later on.
September 14-20 among 41 coronavirus deaths were reported by the operative strain. This is not at all significant compared to the weekly average of 2,400, and in many cases the statistics only classify cases as crowned by the procedure, as serious illnesses also contribute greatly to the eventual death of the patient.
A week later, that number was already 73, then 121 and 173, and last week it was 252
– There is no OSC data available for these weeks. This means that one-tenth of the 2,400 average weekly deaths were due to the coronavirus. This is definitely a detectable ratio.
And it’s not over yet
You can only estimate how much has not finished. One estimate assumes that there is a slip of approximately two weeks in mortality rates compared to the number of hospitalized and ventilated patients. That is, which shows the number of patients who are now being treated in the hospital and on the ventilator, and the increase in the number of cases, will occur in approximately two weeks of deaths.
This means that the number of deaths will increase exponentially in the next period. This is supported by various data. Assuming that deaths will follow the trend in the number of patients treated in hospital, the virus will be more than 15 times more deadly in three weeks than the figure in mid-September.
Compared to 41 cases per week in mid-September, there are already 350 victims this week and 550 victims next. And in three weeks, that number could exceed 700.
The same is even worse, based on the change in the number of patients on the ventilator, with a multiplier of twenty times. Thus, the forecast is 450 this week and more than 800 the next, and three weeks later, deaths above 900 are unthinkable. (Generally speaking, half of ventilated patients do not survive the virus.)
These numbers are in line with experts’ expectations of 100-150 deaths per day. Based on this, the above calculation can even be considered conservative.
We are running fast
It is also noteworthy that the numbers continue to grow at a rapid rate. This is also supported by Cecília Müller in the opening sentence of our article: “The second wave of the coronavirus epidemic is currently in a phase of strong increase”.
The curve of the epidemic, as dramatically illustrated in a social media post, looks like The Giant Serpent in The Little Prince after swallowing an elephant. I mean, it starts very slowly and flat, this is the tail of the snake, and then suddenly it starts abruptly, this is the front of the elephant. Once it climaxes, it stays level and then very slowly begins to turn into a descending branch, this is the elephant’s back and buttocks, finally it falls back abruptly and stretches, this is already the head of the snake.
The consequences, however, are far from fabulous. The most important information is when the curve reaches its maximum, that is, the head of the elephant. No news on that yet. This period would come when the number of cases would no longer increase daily, weekly.
By comparison, the number of cases doubles in less than two weeks:
trend in weekly mortality data, bold every two weeks: 41; fifty; 73; 121; 173; 252 and the estimate is 350; 560; 700–900 …
If the doubling rate slows down substantially and then stops, we will still be alone on the roof, on the elephant’s back. During this period, the only good news will be that there will be nothing worse. Then on a daily basis, the worst numbers will be repeated until the decline begins. It is not known what the number will be, because it is not yet possible to know when the doubling rate will begin to decrease, and the decrease is out of the question at the moment; a decrease here means a decrease in the growth rate.
Many thousands of lives
To be clear, how many lives are involved: if in three weeks, what week we estimate, the virus could have up to 900 victims, growth suddenly stops and peaks, and then the death rate falls from the peak at the same rate. in just four weeks. as it increased, we would get to where we were in mid-September in about three and a half months.
During this time, that is, since mid-September, we can count on a total of 8,000 deaths in 18 weeks. By comparison, from spring to mid-September, there were just over a thousand victims of the virus in Hungary.
This scenario is quite optimistic, so it cannot be based on that. This is because the climax certainly won’t happen in three weeks, even if everyone is boarded up in their apartment tomorrow morning and no one is released for weeks. We saw in the spring that what we do now, what is happening now, will have an effect on the number of infected in a week or two. This infiltrates the hospital records and, from there, appears in the death figures two to three weeks later. That is, if everyone is locked in their apartment tomorrow morning, the number of deaths will increase steadily for another 4-5 weeks.
(Cover image: A doctor in protective gear examines a ventilated patient in an intensive care unit for coronavirus-infected patients at Hospital Szent László on April 22, 2020. Photo: Zoltán Balogh / MTI)
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