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- We do not test more than 12-13 thousand per day
- On paper, the number of cases does not increase much
- The rate of positive results decreased
- Compared to the 31,000 registered, there may be 600,000 infected
The red counter is updated daily at koronavírus.gov.hu, and Medical Director Cecília Müller enthusiastically repeats these numbers in viral information every afternoon between two tips for a helpful handwash or wedding ceremony. In reality, however, these published figures reveal much more about the internal epidemic situation than Comrade Gyatlov’s instrument on radiation intensity in the Chernobyl series. The dosimeter could not measure more than 3.6, so the thousandth dose was also recorded as 3.6. Which is not good, but not tragic either.
According to the data, in recent weeks, an average of 800-900 cases have been found per day, sometimes with thousands of people entering. It’s not a big deal, we could even shake it.
However, this number is almost certainly so low because public labs only perform about 10,000 tests daily.
(or only half as yesterday). There are also standout numbers here, 12-13 thousand tests per day, but on October 5, the epidemiological authority reported only 6,242 tests, which means the number is incredibly hectic.
What does the WHO recommend?
What do the numbers show?
Due to the large number of tests, it is practically useless to explore the daily numbers. It is better to pay attention to the so-called moving averages. This shows, on average, what numbers have come to light during the last seven days. As a result, significant daily fluctuations disappear from the system and ideally some trend emerges. The seven-day moving average of the tests shows that the number of daily tests began to increase in September and then stopped towards the end of the month. Now it seems that the number of daily tests is just under ten thousand, regardless of the circumstances. However, the daily number of cases is growing on a trend based on the seven-day moving average, and the hit rate is also increasing. This means that Comrade Gyatlov’s dosimeter will soon melt from radiation, but it still shows 3.6.
The government has consistently argued that it is acting in accordance with the WHO recommendations. So is. Only the relevant WHO recommendation does not consist of two lines. Because Hungary is definitely meeting two lines: it is about the minimum number of tests. This is at least one test per thousand inhabitants per week, that is, in the case of Hungary, approximately 1,400 samples per day. It has been in hindsight since mid-April.
It is recommended that the number of tests be kept constant in order to follow trends.
If labs run six thousand tests in one day, tens of thousands the other day, and then eight and 13 thousand tests, no conclusions can be drawn from this, as a very different number of samples will necessarily result in a very different number of samples. cases. This is also the case with us. The picture is a bit clearer if we only look at the days when the number of daily tests exceeded ten thousand: here, as of September 7, a continuous upward trend can be observed, starting from 4-500 cases , the number of positive cases now exceeds a thousand.
The WHO recommendation also adds that testing is appropriate if, in addition to consistency, the positive hit rate remains below five percent over a two-week interval.
If this is not the case, the number of tests should be increased, by the way, until the proportion of positive tests falls below the 5% threshold. Keeping the ratio of 5 percent is also important to keep track of trends. Or so that the contacts can be searched with great security and hit rate. It is recommended that this task be completed within 48 hours.
We let go of the reins
In the case of Hungary, this has rarely come together since mid-September. And it is not that sometimes that ratio goes from 4.9 to 5.1.
On October 5, that’s actually the test result from the day before, of course, that rate was 13.75 percent.
The tests produced an equally low rate on an additional two days when the labs ran 6,000 and 7,000 tests, respectively.
As of mid-August, with 2,000 tests a day, the positive rate was still reassuringly low, not exceeding two percent. At the end of August and beginning of September, this ratio could not be maintained even with six thousand daily tests. In mid-September, even with ten thousand tests a day, it was becoming increasingly difficult to stay within five percent, and today it is not even possible to approach the five percent level with 12-13 thousand tests. A drastic increase in testing capacity is not yet on the agenda, at least suggesting that the government has allocated budgetary resources for 8,000 tests per day by the end of the year. This, of course, can be raised at any time, it just depends on the intention.
There could be 600,000 infected
This means that we really have no idea how many people are infected in the country. According to statistics, 31 thousand, but as is clear from the extremely high positive rate, it is certainly much more than that. How much can only be guessed. However, the advice is shocking and alarming.
Epidemiologists said in early September that
approximately fifteen times the number of actually infected cases is detected
– According to János Szlávik, chief infectologist at the South Pest Central Hospital, a multiplier of ten must be taken into account, but rather fifteen times, but Béla Merkely, rector of SOTE, spoke of a multiplier of twenty.
In many cases, those who produce mild symptoms do not even go to the doctor, contacts are not tested without symptoms, possibly with symptoms. The one who goes to a private laboratory and produces a positive result is the result
it does not appear in the central register.
According to the Index, private labs find positive results in about one in ten tests. The epidemiological authority will be notified, but it will be on a different page when the result is available.
If in Hungary the actual infected people represent fifteen times the detected cases, then there are 465 thousand, if twenty times, then 620 thousand coronaviruses infected in the country. This is supported by the WHO estimate that
one in ten people in the world is infected with a coronavirus.
The epidemic is expected to peak in November: Viktor Orbán shot him in late October, but the virus may well know now. This means that until then, the number of people infected per day will continue to increase, although there may be no sign of this in the statistics.
The climax, of course, does not mean that there is no virus the next day. The climax simply means that the number of people infected per day will no longer increase from there; for the better, we will learn from there that the proportion of positive cases will not increase further after a while. First it stays level and then it starts to taper off pretty slowly. As a result, the number of infected people will continue to increase, but their intensity will no longer increase.
Top image: sample taken for a coronavirus test by a specialist at the sampling point of the University of Debrecen, Nagyfüged, Heves county, at the culture house on May 14, 2020. MTI / Péter Komka MTI Photographer: Peter Komka
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