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In recent months, results from various voting institutes have also shown that Fidesz is in decline and support for opposition parties is already greater than for government parties. On the opposition side, after the success of the municipal elections in autumn 2019, hope was rekindled that Fidesz could be defeated in 2022.
Viktor Orbán and his party have won every parliamentary election in the last ten years, thus winning two-thirds in parliament in 2010, 2014 and 2018. But what did the polls show at the beginning of the year before the elections? So is it really possible to talk about a trend reversal? Let the numbers do the talking.
2013
In January 2013, Median, Szonda-Ipsos, Tárki and End of the Century also conducted a survey. Based on this, it is worth building on the Median research, which reported data each time during this period.
In January of the year before the elections, Median measured 27 percent support for Fidesz among the entire population. In 2013, the opposition organizations were still widely separated, but the total support of the parties that have joined the alliance (MSZP, DK, LMP, Jobbik, who have since stopped working together in 2014) was 36 percent. of the population.
Among safe party voters, Fidesz was 43 percent, while total support from opposition parties was 57 percent.
Finally, in the April 2014 parliamentary elections, Fidesz – KDNP won for the second time for the second time, and government parties reached 45 percent in the new electoral system.
2017
In January 2017, Fidesz represented 37 percent of the total population in Median, while 28 percent of voters sympathized with opposition parties. Among the voters of the safe party, the government parties enjoyed a popularity similar to the results of the fall of 2010, the Fidesz – KDNP had a support of 60 percent.
By contrast, the total support of opposition parties was 38% (Momentum also appeared in opinion polls for the first time, with a result of 2% among voters of certain parties).
In the 2018 spring parliamentary elections, Viktor Orbán finally scored a two-thirds victory again at 49 percent.
Treasury optimism for the 22nd
In 2021, the median had yet to release data, and its last survey was conducted last December. In this, Fidesz – KDNP enjoyed 32 percent popularity among the entire population, while the opposition coalition (MSZP – DK – Diálogo – LMP – Momentum – Jobbik) gained 28 percent.
Among the party’s unsuspecting voters, the ruling parties are 49 percent, while the total support of the opposition parties (excluding Nuestro País and the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party) is only 40 percent.
(Cover image: Viktor Orbán in the Fidesz results waiting room on April 9, 2018. Photo: Németh Sz. Péter / Index)
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