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Gábor Török was the guest of the Inforádió Aréna program on Monday afternoon. When asked if it was worth it for the mayor of Budapest to join the successful electoral campaign, the political analyst replied that, as the leaven of the opposition coalition, it would not have made sense for Gergely Karácsony to distance himself from Borsod’s candidate, László Bíró .
He had no alternative. Had to swallow this frog
– said the political scientist, who said that to be successful in the 2022 elections, the opposition parties are trying to minimize the conflict between them, so that “if Christmas had shown a desertion, it would have dismantled unity.”
According to the analyst, it is clear that even in the case of a highly contested candidate, voters are willing to put their grievances aside, and the votes have been added:
Left-wing voters were also willing to vote for this controversial person. The lesson, however, is not that just anyone can be elected by the opposition.
According to Gábor Török, if it had been possible to choose a more suitable candidate with less attack surface, the opposition could have achieved a better result, so “it is not worth selecting a candidate in a hasty party, but exploring their attack surfaces in an internal struggle. “
The political analyst pointed out the trend that
the influence of two political opposition forces, the DK and the Momentum, is constantly growing. However, none of them can be called the leading force of the opposition. The others struggle to get to the table.
According to Gábor Török, precisely because there is no dominant actor, the political weakness of the individual parties unites the opposition.
Oddly enough, I’d rather just bring them closer to a deal
– said the expert, who assured that it also provides a kind of protection to the parties against possible failures.
According to Gábor Török, “the development of joint lists is at hand” and the 106 individual electoral districts can lead the opposition towards a special mixed solution. The districts can be divided into three types: there are many districts where, if the current balance of national power is maintained, the opposition will not have the opportunity to kick the ball, because Fidesz was above 50 percent. Another type of district is where Fidesz has remained significantly below 50 percent, and there are districts where it has performed between 47 and 50 percent between the two. This so-called undulating district is also the sixth constituency of Borsod. They are characterized by the fact that very little can depend on whether the opposition wins or loses here. It is worth separating these sets from each other, keeping the preselection where the possibility exists, the analyst emphasized.
Time plays an important role in such a multiplayer game
– said Gábor Török, who said that there could be many more points where someone could kick the agreement, and we must not forget that in the meantime a national policy must be followed.
“There are no easy months for the opposition”
According to the analyst, the real difficulty will be cooperation, but there is a positive example: the political forces managed to stay behind Gergely Karácsony. However, an important difference is that there will be many seats in 2022, with many personal speakers, and in addition, Fidesz will do everything possible to accommodate the processes that lead to the opposition conflict, he emphasized.
“Whoever leaves the opposition circle will be punished by the electorate. each actor must show that he wants the best “
Gábor Török pointed out. He says that whoever does not align will experience unpleasant moments. Momentum, for example, is the party that least wants to campaign together with the DK, but the young party would suffer greatly and put the DK in a significant competitive position if it did not join forces with the other parties in the face of opposition:
They also need to give the appearance they want, although obviously not so much.
According to the analyst
There are two possible scenarios: if Gergely Karácsony is willing to run for the post of prime minister, or if not.
When asked why Christmas emphasizes to the public that he is not running for prime minister, Gábor Török said there could be several reasons for this: maybe because he really believes it, or for tactical reasons it is more useful to say so, maybe he wants the look. take it off yourself or you just want to wonder. According to the analyst, if Christmas starts, he will win the pre-election of the opposition, because the people of Budapest are very satisfied with his work and their support is approximately at the level of a year ago.
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