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One of the fixed axioms about America’s presidential campaigns is that they don’t focus in the slightest on foreign policy issues. While foreign policy had a strong isolationist tradition, there have always been exceptions to this rule. During the 1992 presidential campaign, for example, CNN’s then dominant news coverage of the Sarajevo site aired daily, making the issue an inevitable part of political discourse abroad.
Democrat Bill Clinton, a rival of President George Bush, also harshly criticized the current administration for watching the bloody and tragic disintegration of Yugoslavia that was taking place at the time, with his hands in his lap. Then after his election, Clinton switched to a truly interventionist policy in the Balkans, with NATO twice embroiled in an air war against the Serbs. One of the Clintons’ best-known political creations was the Dayton Peace Treaty, which ended the Bosnian war and criticized much, but despite all the doubts and pessimism of analysts, for a quarter of a century.
I’d make him a Balkan peacemaker
The current situation is different in the sense that it was not the Democrats, but the Republican administration in office, that wanted to shine its peacebuilding capabilities in the Balkans. Since the middle of the presidential term, the White House has been pushing for Donald Trump to play the role of “Balkan peacemaker,” whose success would obviously be a painful film for Democrats who have viewed the title as their own faith for decades. The conclusion of the Macedonian name dispute between the Skopje and Athens governments since 1992, with the Prespa Convention two years ago, may even have seemed an encouraging start.
However, the conflict in Kosovo turned out to be a harder bone to break, and despite all American and European attempts, relations between Kosovar Albanians and Belgrade became strained time and again, usually followed by a bitter declaration of war. However, Washington did not relax, but instead tried to overtake the European Union, which had been sleeping in the Balkans for a year or two. Although Brussels regularly sends valiant aid checks to the Balkans, it still subsidizes Kosovo’s budget with a sum of European taxpayers’ money, but is proving almost completely incapable of forcing political progress in exchange for money.
Involve Trump in the signing ceremony
Trump lined up a grand cannon on a party line to fight Europeans with the genre of diplomacy and demonstrate the administration’s foreign policy genius. Although Richard Grenell could not boast of great material knowledge about the region, his loyalty to the president, his willingness to act with a heavy hand, and his desire to prove it seemed undeniable to everyone from the outset. Grenell, who was the U.S. ambassador to Berlin last fall when he received the Kosovo dialogue dossier last fall, assigned Kosovo and Serb leaders to Berlin, abolished Serbia’s criminal obligations to Pristina, but was even rumored to be it would delay the negotiations. behind the overthrow of the Kurti government of Kosovo right in the middle of the spring coronavirus epidemic.
After a failed attempt in June, a high-level political meeting took place between Kosovar Albanian and Belgrade leaders on September 3-4. The two-day trial ultimately produced a memorandum of understanding between the two parties, which, while not an agreement or landmark agreement, could be called even less, but which the hosts had already found good enough to involve President Trump in the signing ceremony. Clearly, National Security Advisor Robert C. O’Brien also entered the negotiations, who was able to place them in a broader political context than Grenell, who had already been heavily criticized as Berlin’s ambassador.
Recognize the independence of Kosovo
The letter of intent is dominated by a number of economic and infrastructure issues, but these have been on the agenda for years and it is difficult to find an element that can bring a strategic turning point. Rather, the geopolitical interests of the Americans are reflected in the text: they seek to curb Russian influence in Serbia with a commitment to diversify energy sources, and the Chinese to gain ground with a restriction on 5G developments. The former was also the target of attacks, as evidenced by the Russian reactions that came to light, a strange criticism from a foreign spokesperson or an article in the daily Kommersant.
Pristina representatives wanted / would want to force Belgrade to formally recognize the independence of the former Kosovo province in anticipation of US pressure. At the Washington meeting, however, the US proposal to recognize Kosovo met (again) a categorical rejection by the Serbian delegation. This should not have come as a surprise to anyone following the region, as not as many sincere intentions for reconciliation have been discovered between Serbs and Kosovar Albanians in the last 20 years as between Serbs and Bosnians and between Serbs and Croats.
Railway exit to the sea
The Belgrade delegation was led by Serbian President Vucsic, who has been the dominant political leader of our southern neighbor for years and whose opposition is increasingly forced to kneel. It will not be difficult for him to communicate that the Washington meeting was a success, especially since Serbian leaders have not had the opportunity to take photos too often in the White House on the side of the President of the United States for the past 30 years. Kosovo’s Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti, less well known internationally, is not in such a comfortable position. The technocratic politician, who took over as head of government three months ago, may have a very thin and fragile majority behind him in the Pristina parliament, with very racy opposition, for which he will be harshly criticized in Pristina for royal concessions or perceived to Serbs.
The Serbs are very happy to once again have the prospect of a rail exit through Kosovo towards the Albanian coast, which has been one of the cornerstones of Serbian national aspirations since the mid-19th century, for which it was also launched a war in 1912. The other question is how much economic relevance this will have in 2020, when the Thessaloniki-Belgrade railway line has been available for decades. The great gift to Kosovo’s statehood was that Washington won them diplomatic recognition from Israel on Friday for allowing Pristina diplomacy to lobby for years, to no avail until now. In return, the Israelis have asked Serbia and Kosovo to declare Hezbollah a terrorist organization and to commit to taking action against it by all means.
Despite all the attempts at political marketing, this meeting will not bring historical laurels to Donald Trump, but it has certainly pushed a mess into the reconciliation process between Serbia and Kosovo, at least by declaring a diplomatic ceasefire between the two countries. for a year. How much does this improve Trump’s chances of reelection? So far, the votes of the American Serbs have been decisive for him. New York’s very strong Albanian community, on the other hand, is unlikely to be seduced by the tougher base of Democrats.
Timeline of the Belgrade-Pristina dialogue
1999 – Kosovo is placed under international administration following NATO’s spring air campaign;
2006 – Under pressure from Kosovo Albanians and the growing unpopularity of the UN administration, negotiations on the future status of Kosovo begin through international mediation;
2008: Status talks fail, as Pristina legislature unilaterally declares Kosovo independence, which Serbia, Russia, China and five EU member states have so far not recognized as legally valid;
2011 – Under the auspices of the European Union, negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina begin to normalize daily relations;
Several encouraging sub-agreements will be reached between the two parties in 2013 and 2015, but by 2016 both parties will refrain from implementing more politically sensitive agreements.;
2018-2019: The United States is beginning to play an increasingly active role in bringing the process out of stagnation; Informal talks between the heads of state of Kosovo and Serbia raise the idea of redrawing the current border between Kosovo and Serbia, which is met with radical opposition from Berlin and many other EU member states.
(Cover Image: Serbian Head of State Aleksandar Vucic (b) Speaks with US President Donald Trump after signing economic relations agreements with Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti at the Serbian Summit- Kosovo at the White House in Washington on September 4, 2020.
MTI / AP / Evan Vucci
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