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By December 2020, it had just been decided: the United States Board of Elections had confirmed Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump. Therefore, the Democratic politician is expected to move into the White House on January 20.
It’s too early to move forward, but it may in retrospect result in the biggest global political turn in 2021.
At the end of 2021, in Berlin, the other most important center of power in Hungary, a substantial change is expected after the next Bundestag elections. Chancellor Angela Merkel will not be rebooted, ending her nearly 16-year tenure in German politics since 2005. Only the parties of the Christian Union, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and her Bavarian sister, the CSU, appear to be chancellors. nowadays; The CDU is expected to elect a possible party president in January. We write about the candidates and Hungary’s participation here and here.
Other important capitals for world politics, Brussels, Moscow and Beijing, are Note from Erich Maria in his novel a In the West: unchanged. The mandate of the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is almost four years. Russian President Vladimir Putin is sure to keep his seat in the Kremlin, and his Chinese counterpart Xixing is also nearly two years away from the decade usually given to Beijing leaders.
The Index asked global policy analysts to find out: What do you expect from 2021?
András Simonyi, Principal Investigator, Washington Atlantic Council, former Hungarian Ambassador to Washington:
The entry of Joe Biden and the departure of Angela Merkel are major changes for the toolbox, but in 2021, priorities will be determined by challenges. Above all, we need to curb the coronavirus epidemic and restart the world economy. In the relationship between the West, that is, the United States and its allies and the East, you understand China and Russia, it will be of great importance, among other things, if a strategic war will develop, for example, from the development of vaccines and distribution global vaccine. In addition to the non-traditional war that Russia and especially China are taking.
Of particular concern to the Biden administration is the state of Western democracies, which in the United States is seen as the cohesive force of the West, a kind of adhesive. As is the question of whether the Western federal system will renew itself or whether it will roll its internal conflicts before itself. Let us have no doubts, although Donald Trump did not believe in multilateralism (multilateral diplomacy) and, therefore, in the EU, the renewal of the global institutional system – NATO, UN, World Health Organization (WHO), World Trade Organization ( OMC) – Biden also considers it critical and anticipates it with the American leadership.
THE EU IS EXPECTED TO PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN MOSTAN MINE IN THE NEW AMERICAN PRESIDENT’S PLANS, BUT THE RELATIONSHIP WILL NOT BE FREE OF PROBLEMS.
Europe is an equal partner in many respects, but not in defense and security. In 2021, the White House will continue to pay close attention to ordering a halt to Chinese forces in Hong Kong and Taiwan, curbing the expansion of China’s strategic plan, One Zone, One Road (the “New Silk Road”) and making meet Beijing. against, among other things, the protection of intellectual property. Tough US opposition to telecommunications giant Huawei will persist.
Biden is also expected to strongly block Russia’s “problem mixes” in Eastern Europe. Finally, stopping Iran’s nuclear weapons is coming to the fore again, but there is no doubt that the Biden administration is simply going back to Barack Obama’s previous deal with Tehran. Biden also wants to be at the forefront of climate protection; he also sees this as a strategic security issue.
György Nógrádi, Security Policy Expert, Budapest Corvinus University:
The presidential election of the German Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is expected to take place in January, with the election of even the next German chancellor. Of the three candidates, Friedrich Merz appears to be advancing, who, on the other hand, would not pursue the grand coalition with the Social Democrats, but the radical right and left, the Alternative to Germany party and Die Linke. Thus, the Greens or the FDP Liberal Party will remain a potential coalition partner for Christian union parties after the 2021 autumn Bundestag elections.
It is about whether Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder will become a true aspiring chancellor, although Merz does not want to give him that opportunity. On foreign policy, the new US government led by Joe Biden will expect Berlin to align itself with its policy toward China, but the flagships of the German economy are unlikely to give up their interests there.
The saying goes: Germany is too big for Europe, too small for the world
Russia is trying to become a world superpower again, relying on its energy resources and its military. In 2021 alone, around 5,000 military exercises are planned, armed and built. The Russian-Chinese differences have been relegated to the background by the common enemy, the US presidency of Donald Trump, but could escalate again next year, in parallel with the change in Washington.
At home, the government of President Vladimir Putin is not in serious danger, it has all the power in the field. This is not the case in big cities, but you don’t have to face a significant challenge yet, although their popularity has declined as has the standard of living.
Adrienn Erbszt, geopolitical blogger:
Joe Biden’s policy on China, according to his statements, will not be hasty or a sharp change from Donald Trump’s: the future president of the United States relies mainly on building a larger and more coordinated allied system. He also considers it important to strengthen domestic research and industrial development to complement sanctions and political measures aimed at weakening China. We can also expect the United States to increase its presence in the South China Sea to keep Chinese efforts under military control. For now, I can see from the speeches that
Biden, unlike the Russians, does not see China as an enemy, but rather as a rival for the moment.
Biden uses a completely different rhetoric for the two countries. Today, despite their many conflicts of interest, it is clear: Russia and China, as they did in the 1960s and 1970s, move as a single bloc in Asia, the Middle East, and South America. China is conquering with its economy, Russia with its energy and army and with mutual assurance.
The position of the United States is not good in the long term as an excluded third role, so one of the parties must somehow be ripped from this excessive concentration. Who you choose depends on who poses the greatest threat to America as a world leader? But will China and Russia be passive victims of US geopolitics, traditionally a few steps ahead of them, or rather active participants?
(Cover image: Vladimir Putin, Angela Merkel, Joe Biden. Photo: Sputnik / Bernd Von Jutrczenka / Al Drago / Reuters / Getty Images Hungary)
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