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2020 has passed in the spirit of: every Sunday, masses took to the streets in Belarus to protest against President Alexander Lukashenko and demand
new, this time fair elections.
But if Lukashenko did that in the near future, he would certainly lose the presidency. And a person of strategic importance to Russia could be led by someone the Kremlin would not necessarily be happy with.
Bird feathers
Opposition leader Svetlana Tyihanovskaya, who has been forced to flee to Lithuania, has been in talks with representatives of several NATO member states in recent days to gain support for the Belarusian opposition. Meanwhile, he did not say a bad word about Russia, stressing that the opposition movement is not directed against the neighboring state, I want to maintain good relations with Moscow in the future. Tyihanovskaya claims to be trying to contact Russian leaders, but her questions so far have been met with fragile.
Not by accident. The opposition leader has the support of Poland, Ukraine and the Baltic countries, which are hostile to Russia, while calling on the European Union and the United States to expand sanctions against the Belarusian regime. In the Kremlin’s eyes, Tikhanovskaya is unreliable, even though she could possibly play a connecting role between the West and Russia.
MOSCOW HAS LOST VOICES WITH LUKASENKO FOR PURPOSE.
Learning from the history of Ukraine, he is playing wait and see how he is pushing the Belarusian president to resolve the crisis in a way that suits the Kremlin as well.
The friend is in trouble
After the events of August, it seemed that Lukashenko would sooner or later step down as he lost his legitimacy in the eyes of the people. However, the head of state immediately went to Russia for help, which, albeit modestly, provided it. The request for help points to panic: the President of Belarus has repeatedly clashed with Moscow in the past, calling for the deepening of the political and economic union between the two countries, the State Union.
This was followed by meetings of Russian and Belarusian leaders; These were intended to signal a commitment to strengthening and cooperation between the two governments. Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko, for example, after his September meeting with his Russian counterpart,
IT WAS PASSED WITH THE RUSSIAN VACCINE RECEIVED IN THE GIFT, WHICH HAS NEVER BEEN IN CLINICAL TESTING.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov signaled to Lukashenko in late November that it was time to implement the constitutional amendment that he had promised at the beginning of the crisis. Changes that could be made by referendum would limit the powers of the presidency. However, Lukashenko, who has ruled the country for 26 years, essentially on dairy energy, has no idea of leaving, but it would not be necessary to change the power structure.
This is not a crisis, a war
To date, protesters have been arrested more than 30,000 times in protest movements, and although most “escape” with fines or short prison sentences, authorities have processed nearly 1,000 cases.
Country of selective consequences
Last week, a man was sentenced to two and a half years in the northern city of Vitebsk for rushing to protect a woman from violent riot police in September. And on Monday, Natalia Hersche, a Swiss citizen of Belarusian origin, was also sentenced to two and a half years in prison for being shot down by a police officer in September. mask. A Minsk court sentenced two men to two years in prison for being shot in August Alexander Tarajkochsky at the place of his death they wrote on the asphalt: “We will never forget it!”
The judiciary under the control of the head of state and the security services are working hard to hit the resistance with the harshest possible consequences without deterrence. According to a human rights report, after the decrease in police violence in late August, detainees are increasingly abused in September.
THE PURPOSE OF THE ACTION OF AUTHORITY IS TO GIVE YOUR UNDERSTANDING: THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE TO THE LUKASENKO REGIME. THE SYSTEM WILL PLAY DOWN WITH AN IRON UNTIL SYMPTOMS ARE PRESENT.
This is what the presidential administration has ordered. According to the Carnegie Moscow Institute, there have never been so many military leaders in important positions among the president. Civil servants were relegated to the background and, as is customary in war situations, Lukashenko surrounded himself with the leaders of the violent organization.
ALL WRITTEN REPORTING OF THE BATTLE OF PROTESTS SHOULD BE PRODUCED DIRECTLY FROM THE FRONT. THE PRESIDENT SEES THE CIVILIANS NOT FORBIDDEN IN THE TOWN, BUT THE ENEMIES ON WHOM THEY NEED TO WIN AT ANY PRICE.
You can also count on violent organizations in this: the latter are well aware that if protesters prevail, they will be swept up in popular anger. Lukashenko and the increasingly influential violent organizations in the country are interdependent.
THIS, OTHERWISE, CONTAINS THE DANGER OF BEING TOTALLY TRANSFORMED INTO A MILITARY DICTATORSHIP BY BELARUS.
Therefore, it is in the interest of power to crush resistance as soon as possible and achieve relative stability.
If the people are broken and accept their destiny, we can already see the constitutional amendment that the Russians are also pushing, in Lukashenko’s words, to establish democracy in Belarus.
Putin’s recipe, Venezuelan spice, Kazakh practice
Lukashenko has repeatedly stated that he will resign after a referendum to amend the constitution. If a new presidential election is indeed held after the amendment, the head of state would certainly bleed into the vote. The other day, however, he hinted at the transformation of the Belarusian People’s Assembly, which would unite economic and political leaders and deprive the opposition, and which would meet every five years.
THE CONSTITUTION MUST RECORD: THE ASSEMBLY, PRESIDENT OF LUKASENKO, DEFINES THE COUNTRY’S INTERNAL AND FOREIGN POLICIES AND SUPERVISES THE WORK OF THE GOVERNMENT.
The President of Belarus, at the head of this body, could continue to govern the country by handing over the presidency with limited powers to someone else.
The idea is eerily similar to that of the Russian State Council. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently signed a law defining the role of a body of senior federal officials and regional governors. This is almost the same as Lukashenko can mean for the Belarusian assembly. The experts, by the way, have been playing for a long time: if Putin does not restore his presidential term with a summer referendum, this body would remain at the forefront of power.
Lukashenko would not be the first authoritarian leader in the world to use the constitution to seize power while retreating to the background. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned in 2019, saying it was time to hand over leadership to a new generation. But he has not retired: he is still a member of the seven-member Constitutional Council and also chairs the Security Council, which oversees the army and law enforcement agencies and assists in the administration of the Head of State.
UNTIL THE END OF YOUR LIFE.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro prevented the creation of a constitutional assembly of loyal members endowed with legislation and made the legislation of the opposition majority impossible.
The least bad choice
There are currently three roads ahead of the Belarusians.
1. Strengthening false democracy
The voices of protest are muted enough to call a referendum on the constitutional amendment. And in a referendum, they can decide on a complete package as a kind of compromise. They will reduce the powers of the president while expanding the aforementioned People’s Assembly of Belarus. Lukashenko will assume the presidency of the board and will take the country further from the bottom. Either hand over the presidency to an elected successor or call new elections, for which Russians with free access to Belarus are also preparing sympathetic candidates for the Kremlin and creating seemingly independent parties. And the Belarusians accept the received from power concessions.
2. Strengthening the dictatorial system
Not even after a four-month wave of protests they back off The authorities. Furthermore, the repression appears to be intensifying and will last as long as the protests continue. The danger here is that the longer the crisis lasts, the greater the chances of Belarus turning into a Russian-backed military dictatorship. If all attempts at reform and change are accompanied by demonstrations, a referendum cannot be held. Minsk and Moscow may run out of patience: they will name Lukashenko’s successor from the army leaders around him and reinforce him by decree. Russia, however, citing law enforcement peacemakers sends the country and establishes a puppet government that will serve Russian interests, accelerating be the process of establishing a political union between the two countries.
3. Revolution
Protesters have so far protested peacefully, no matter how brutally violent organizations use violence against them. But it could easily be that one day the glass will be filled with people who have been terrified for months and decide to use violence.
HOWEVER, THIS WOULD HAVE UNCERTAINABLE CONSEQUENCES.
One thing is for sure: Lukashenko has no interest in this scenario, as he would later overthrow his government. The bloodshed would also be unacceptable to Moscow and it would be forced to take control. Perhaps, however, Lukashenko’s successor could be appointed more quickly, and the second scenario above would materialize in a faster version.
(Cover image: Alexander Lukashenko at a meeting in Minsk on November 30, 2020. Photo: Maxim Guchek / BelTA / Reuters)
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