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After the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and more recently Morocco joined the Abraham Agreement, but Israeli newspapers are already reporting that Indonesia and Oman will soon be able to follow them. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia is considering normalizing its relations with Israel.
The American thread is very important in all this. Although Donald Trump will leave the White House on January 20, during his presidency he has vowed to bring peace to the Middle East. Now it seems that a kind of Israel-centered peace is emerging within the framework of the alliance; This Trump’s son-in-law, presidential adviser Jared Kushner, has worked modestly even in recent weeks.
According to Máté Szalai, an analyst at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade (KKI) who told Index, this is definitely a matter of prestige for Trump, who is expanding the Abrahamic agreement on a quid pro quo basis.
For most interested states, Trump said that in order to normalize their relations with Israel (thus virtually recognizing their raison d’être), they also get something in return.
So far, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco have established relations with Israel. The commitments have clear results.
- In the case of Morocco, the United States sided with Rabat against the separatist Western Sahara.
- The UAE wanted to acquire modern American military equipment (drones and F-35 fighter bombers); and Washington made it possible.
- Sudan has been removed from the list of states that support terrorism: this has opened the way for an influx of international aid to a country affected by conflict and droughts.
Of course, each country in question may have more serious interests than consolidating its relations with Washington. Abu Dhabi expects Israeli investment and a tourism boom in the future.
The prophet could have talked about it
Previously, the prevailing view was that Israel would establish relations with the surrounding Arab countries if progress was made on the Palestinian issue. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has always questioned this.
He expressed it about two decades ago: these countries are not seeing a solution to the situation of the Palestinians, but they will be cooperating with their country because they will see that they can only win with that.
Thus Netanyahu carries out a kind of historic mission: the expansion of the Abrahamic Agreement is seen in Israel as a strengthening of international acceptance of the Jewish state.
Says the KKI researcher.
That is why the smaller countries, geographically remote from Israel, have a symbolic meaning. This is true not only for Morocco, but also especially for Indonesia in Southeast Asia, the country with the largest Muslim population in the world.
The enemy of my enemy
Many countries have an interest in security cooperation under the agreement. Regarding Oman, although it has not yet normalized its relations with Israel, it is known that there has been some kind of cooperation and flow of information between them for years.
The same is true for Saudi Arabia
– adds Máté Szalai.
As the Index has previously written, one aspect is the formation of a coalition against Iranian influence. This is probably the main aspect of the United States, but it is not necessarily shared by all participating states. Dubai in the emirates, for example, maintains relations with Tehran in the current sanctions situation and would use the potential for security cooperation against Islamist movements. This is equally true for several other states interested in the reconciliation process.
In Bahrain, on the other hand, great importance is attached to Iranian influence. In the Sunni-led but mostly Shiite Gulf state, there were massive protests in the Arab Spring, behind which Bahrain was suspicious of Iran. According to the researcher, there are apparently informal Iranian networks present in Bahrain, so the country’s leadership fears Persian influence. By joining an anti-Iran axis, everyone can only win.
Unless …
Besides Iran, the Palestinians are the biggest losers from the Abraham agreement. Ten or fifteen years ago, the Palestinian question was a major issue in Middle East politics, and now you hardly hear about it: it has been removed from the Arab agenda, in part because of Iran. In September, a Palestinian initiative that would have condemned the agreement between Israel and the Emirates failed in the Arab League.
The Palestinian territories are divided, the Gaza Strip was taken over by extremist Hamas in 2007, and the West Bank is run by Fatah, which controls the Palestinian Authority. To move forward on the Palestinian question, the two organizations would first have to reach an agreement. There have been attempts to do this in recent years, but they have failed.
Therefore, there is no common platform, no common position, no common delegation to start negotiations on a Palestinian issue.
The KKI employee explains.
On the other hand, it is difficult to speak of Palestinian statehood. Israel has been making infrastructure developments for years, with roads running through the territory of the future Palestinian state. Israel would not give them to the Palestinians.
Israel is fighting organizations that do not have the full support of the Arab states. For example, the Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah, which is closely linked to Iran, is at war with a paramilitary organization that has been active in Syria and Iraq in the interest of Iran. Hamas, which controls Gaza, is also an ousted organization, which, according to Szalai, also contains Iranian threads.
To all this contributes the growth of a new generation in the Arab world, which is already little concerned about the situation of the Palestinians.
Trump’s gift
Saudi Arabia is also considering raising relations with Israel to an official level, although press reports say it wants to wait for President Joe Biden to be inaugurated in the United States in January. According to Szalai, this would be a kind of gesture: The Saudis offer to join the Abrahamic agreement for Biden to release the previous complaints in return. The future president is critical of Saudi Arabia’s involvement in Yemen’s civil war, has taken a firm stance on human rights issues, including the Hasogiji case, and has so far envisioned reconciliation with Iran. Riyadh, as a rival to Tehran, would not be happy with that.
While it is a matter of prestige for Trump to create a kind of peace in the Middle East, he leaves a gift package for his successor: a Middle Eastern coalition rich in opportunities for economic, political and security cooperation.
Featured Image: Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister, Donald Trump, President of the United States, Halid bin Ahmed al-Khalifa of Bahrain, and Sheikh Sheikh Abdallah bin Zajid an-Nahajan of the United Arab Emirates (BJ) on the balcony of the show on September 15, 2020. MTI / EPA / Jim Lo Scalzo
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