Index – Foreign – EU Veto in Hungary: Loop Needed, But There May Be a Compromise

In a week, it will be another EU summit: this year for the last time in principle, but also in practice?

Even that is not safe. At the moment, there is a deadlock on the EU budget for 2021-27: neither the promised veto between Hungary and Poland has turned into a camphor nor has the majority of the EU renounced its position that it would link the payment of the EU funds to the so-called rule of law mechanism in the future. Budapest and Warsaw do not accept this: they consider this procedure to be a political stick and blackmail.

However, his position seems somewhat soft.

More recently, on Monday, after the Polish-Hungarian Prime Minister’s talks in Warsaw, the Warsaw government spokesman, Piotr Müller, already said:

Poland and Hungary await new proposals from the German EU Presidency on the EU budget package.

We know that the German Presidency can present a compromise proposal as early as Thursday, which could even lead to an agreement.

A prominent Hungarian political analyst close to Fidesz, who also asked the Index not to reveal his name, said it was important to say three things about it:

1. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán does not want to step off the table with a potentially counterproductive outcome in the 2022 elections. It is worth bearing in mind: more than 10 billion Hungarian forints are at stake in the EU budget.
2. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is leaving next year, is in favor of a compromise: She is building her own political legacy.
3. The analyst interviewed said it was unrealistic because it was disproportionate to that The sex and drug scandal of József Szájer anyone would have blown it up to weaken the Hungarian veto. THEand who wants to use it next, it’s worth considering:

However, one of our government sources, who used to participate in the Hungarian negotiating delegation, prefers to see that a compromise is unlikely next week, according to him, the positions are too rigid.

Scenarios

According to current position:

• Despite the vetoes of Hungary and Poland, the EU can introduce the controversial regulation on the rule of law from January, by qualified majority.
• If no decision is made on the EU framework budget for 2021-27 this year, there will not be a hiatus for one or two years because the actual payments, in turn, are late-stage.
• burning, however, to decide on an EU recovery fund of 750 billion euros; This is very important, especially for the southern Member States, but also for Poland. Furthermore, Hungarian and Polish vetoes can be circumvented in this, and the fund can, in principle, be operated by a smaller circle of member states; in this case, however, Budapest and Warsaw would not see a penny.

Former Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, István Szent-Iványi, a former SZDSZ MEP, told the Index that if there was no agreement, it could have a very serious spillover effect, which could worsen the forint exchange rate and Fidesz’s notoriety. in the European People’s Party. inside. The foreign policy expert considers it conceivable that the soft position of Hungary and Poland and a German compromise proposal are fulfilled, but also that

Szent-Iványi also does not consider it likely that the Szájer case will materially affect the negotiations.

This has more national political importance, although, of course, it does not reinforce Fidesz’s position within the Popular Party either. There, however, the Deutsch case had a greater negative impact, with Szájer more concerned about the tabloids in Europe.

Cover image: MTI / EPA Photographer: Stephanie Lecocq