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Although young people have also been increasingly actively warned lately, it has been a well-known mantra about coronavirus for a year now that the elderly take great care of themselves because the Covid infection primarily requires their lives, as well as the lives of chronic patients .
However, without denying the rationale for caution and increased defense, the statistics show something different, they contain other lessons – he notes. Rockenbauer Antal.
Rockenbauer Antal
The professor of physics, honorary professor at BME and Eötvös Loránd University, and a retired scientific advisor to the Natural Sciences Research Center (TTK) say that the coronavirus epidemic does not actually affect the group of people older than 65 years. it is usually accounted for by public opinion.
All this is also very important, according to the expert, because in the current situation, already tense, it matters a lot how realistic is the sense of danger of the older and younger age groups.
I am not an epidemiologist, but as a physicist, I have a lot of experience in statistical data processing, so it occurred to me what could be behind the increasingly worrying news; today more than three hundred have died from coronavirus. In such cases, it is always constantly stressed that the majority are elderly and chronic patients. To what extent is this worth emphasizing, since it is inherent in life that the older a person is, the risk of death is much higher from the beginning;
He said Rockenbauer Antal to the Index exactly what prompted them to systematize mortality statistics and then look behind the series of numbers to form a credible picture of the real risk of coronavirus infection for different age groups, especially those over 65. In other words, the risk of death, which is a natural part of life, is how it changes as a result of the virus.
I used the US mortality data as a basis because really accurate and reliable correlations can only be drawn from really large sample data sets. Furthermore, its long-term mortality statistics also show the number of deaths in a given age group. With this, I compared the number of additional deaths attributed to cases attributed to Covid, and compared it to mortality data from previous years.
– explains the physicist, whose calculations finally showed that there was no difference: in those over 65, the risk of dying from Covid was twice as high as among those between 35 and 44 years old. (In the US, 300,000 more people died in 2020 than in previous years, which is comparable, though less than the 457,000 deaths officially attributed to Covid.) Especially when we look at the probability that deaths increase in direct proportion with age. For example, 16 percent of those over the age of 85 die in one year.
It is also clear from recent research by Antal Rockenbauer that
One in three deaths attributed to the coronavirus would have occurred even if the person did not contract the infection.
The bottom line, as the statistics show, is that the risk of infection does indeed need to be addressed in the younger age groups, especially in light of current data; nor should they have a false sense of security. Not to mention, they can infect the elderly in the same way as carriers.
“On the other hand, the elderly should not panic unnecessarily, in return we maintain the proportion and in the realm of reality, when we do not underestimate or underestimate the impact of the virus in generations,” says the professor of physics.
Bethesda Children’s Hospital will become an adult vaccination center starting Thursday, the hospital director said in an interview with Index.
(Cover image: a woman wearing a protective mask in front of a store in the capital on April 27, 2020. Photo: Márton Mónus / MTI)
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