Index – Economy – Is the candle lit at the family table at Christmas?

At the end of the summer, Europe showed a unified picture of the Covid epidemic: there was a country with a high number of daily infections: Spain. And Malta, but due to its very small population, this is a skewed figure. Besides the two states, the other classic resorts were relatively clean, you can go relax. In the other countries, the evolution of the number of infected people was not a cause for concern either, but in autumn the situation changed significantly, the explosion arrived. In some countries the number of new infections is already declining, in others there has been no real explosion, and again in others it is only now coming in strongly.

For the sake of clarity, European countries have been organized into regions: west, south, north (plus the Baltic states), and east. The members of the four groups of countries show very similar traits, which makes it more transparent who used which strategy and what was the result.

This is pretty much the question everyone wants to know. Much seems to be the case in Western Europe. Most states are beyond the brutal infection ceiling, compared to Ireland and Germany that push the flat curve in a way unique to the region. Liechtenstein and Luxembourg also showed particularly bad numbers, but the numbers are very distorting for small states. According to the data, the largest infestations occurred in Belgium, Switzerland and France,

But it also appears that after a very sharp spike, the number of new infections began to drop dramatically in all countries from the second and third weeks of November. Of the two trendless states, a similar but much flatter curve can be seen in Ireland, and Germany follows a very peculiar path. If the rate declines at a similar rate in the coming weeks, Christmas will be celebrated in most Western European countries. What this means exactly is an obviously different action plan, but in France, for example, divided into weeks, so that not only the Advent weeks but also New Year’s Eve can be planned, with continuous opening.

Middle east

It’s a shame that it’s the end of November already, because that means that this trend can only continue to be tread here in Central and Eastern Europe until Christmas. Roughly, residents of the Czech Republic and Slovakia can expect not to have to light a flare on a mouth mask – the pattern here is similar to that in Western Europe. In the Czech Republic, as in Belgium, the epidemic peaked in the first week of November, prompting heavy restrictions and closures. In Slovakia, the curve has become much flatter and the number of new infections is steadily decreasing in both states. However, the decline that has begun does not mean an automatic victory.

Therefore, Slovenia also has something to worry about, as the steep climb has stopped, but only for a while. The other states are plagued with relatively high numbers of infected people. The 14-day data per 100,000 people are around 600 and 1000, which means more than 6,000 new infections per day in Austria and more than 4,600 in Hungary, calculated on an average of two weeks. This means that Austria, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, Poland, Romania and Serbia have not yet reached the top. And even if it reaches in the next few days, weeks, the remarkable decline is still a long way off.

Based on the data, this year can be expected to be a quiet, uneventful and unprecedented Christmas. It is not yet known what will happen on New Year’s Eve, but if there are no Christmas markets, there will probably be no New Year’s Eve outdoor parties either. Most importantly, of course, the region has not yet reached the peak of the epidemic. After Western Europe, the virus spreads most intensely in this region. Only the remoteness of the north and the Mediterranean sun could stop the virus. For a moment.

North and south

Lithuania shows deplorable data. The spread of the virus is well managed in the northern states and the Baltic countries, with the exception of Sweden, with the exception of Lithuania. Therefore, a very strict closure has been introduced in the country as of November 7. You can only go to work, and even the number of members for family gatherings has been limited: a Sunday lunch seats five and a wedding no more than ten. The restriction was imposed by the newly elected government after a significant increase.

Without this adjustment, the evolution of the epidemic curve would be unpredictable, so the number of cases is expected to decrease soon. Of the Scandinavians, the case of Iceland is the most interesting. There were very strict rules on the island for participants: two negative tests or two weeks of quarantine. However, two French tourists disobeyed and visited a couple of pubs in the capital for being super contagious.

In southern Europe, states have waged a gigantic struggle for tourism to somehow recover the economy in the summer. At the same time, the fall season has already mixed. Spain, Malta and possibly Cyprus certainly topped at the summit. However, the slowdown is not yet visible in Italy and Portugal. Portugal, at the same time as Hungary, introduced a curfew in several regions, with the difference that it will take effect sometime in the afternoon on weekends. That is, you can work, but not climb on weekends, moving affects 70 percent of the country’s population.

Attempting convulsively to avoid the collapse of Greece, where the shutdown lasted until the end of November. Following news of the extension, a 24-hour strike was organized in Athens, with thousands of people marching into the streets, as images with a mask show. In Greece, nationally, 89% of intensive beds are occupied, the same proportion in the north is much worse at 99%. In light of this, a further adjustment is understandable.

They also digest the numbers in Italy. The government should decide in early December whether to begin easing or whether to remain austerity. Several provinces are in the red zone, including Lombardy, where the virus was already raging in the spring. A total of 16.5 million people are waiting for stores to open because now only people can go out to eat and go to work. Schools are also closed.

It now appears that states that have already started consciously preparing for Christmas in early November will likely be able to create the conditions to do so. The partial or total closure of schools, the closure of shopping centers, non-food stores, all served to force people to distance themselves socially.

Too hard

This will be the hardest thing to do in our region, as it should peak during the Advent period and significantly reduce the number of newly infected people. So far, based on the data, there is not much chance of this happening in Serbia, Croatia or Slovenia either. In all three states, it seems that the ceiling may be close, not even in the case of Serbia.

It would be a big surprise if Hungary could introduce major bumps around Silver and Gold Sunday. There is some optimism that after a previous positivity rate of around 25 percent, less than twenty percent of the tests have turned positive in recent days, respectively. Although still extremely high

At the same time, with a comprehensive view of Europe, it is safe to say that the continent is beyond the summit, the worst. Looking at the 14-day moving average, the majority of new infections were found in mid-November, 277,000 per day. Now it has dropped below 258,000. Of these 258,000, 179,000 were infected by the nine largest states. It also seems that regardless of the temporary restrictive measures introduced by the states, sooner or later everywhere governments opted for a strict closure.

And the success of managing the epidemic depends on the rate at which each country has made these adjustments. Hungary has not yet closed completely, meaning shopping malls and non-food shops are open, as are primary schools. It’s a question of whether we can get through the next few weeks without taking these steps, or whether they will be late, but whether these adjustments will be delayed.

(Cover image: Woman wearing a mask in front of a Christmas tree installed in a shopping center in England on November 23, 2020. Photo: Danny Lawson / PA Images / Getty Images)