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He has drastically worsened his forecasts for the Hungarian economy this year in the recently released forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In the spring, Hungarian GDP was also expected to fall by 3.1% in 2020, but to grow by 4.2% next year.
The recent forecast already predicts a 6.1 percent decline for this year and only 3.9 percent growth for 2021, meaning that the recovery will be slower than previously assumed.
Based on this, by the end of 2021, our economic performance will be 2.4 percent below the 2019 level.
According to this forecast, the outlook for the Hungarian economy is much worse than recently seen by the Finance Ministry or even the Magyar Nemzeti Bank, as the former expects a 5.1 percent drop in GDP by 2020, while that the latter expects a 5 to 6 percent drop next year after a 6 percent drop. expect economic growth.
In addition to the above, the IMF says that inflation will rise to 3.6 percent annually in 2020 and then return to 3.4 percent from last year.
Unemployment will rise from 3.4% to 6.1% in 2020 and will fall to 4.7% in one year.
In terms of the global outlook, IMF economists are already more optimistic, as governments and central banks have taken swift action, deciding unprecedented major changes in monetary and fiscal policy to prevent financial developments like those of 2008-2009. disaster will ensue. On an annual basis, global economic growth could fall by 4.9 percent this year, and by 2021, the world economy could already reach the 2019 level.
They see that there will be no recession in China this year, and an increase of up to 8 percent is considered possible next year. In Western Europe, Germany can swim with the least damage, but even Germans can only reach 98 percent of the 2019 level by the end of 2021.
IMF analysts have also pointed out that while the coronavirus spreads, economic recovery is not certain either, although better-than-expected growth data may come in from the third quarter of 2020. According to the IMF, it is important to maintain management measures crisis for a long time. Thus, although GDP will decline in the short term, unlike previous recessions, it will be possible to ensure that the financial situation of households and companies does not collapse.
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