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The price of gasoline and diesel increased by more than 100 HUF in less than a year. While the price of 95 gasoline was 278 HUF per liter on May 1, 2020, it is now 428 HUF, while diesel has increased from 308 HUF to 435 HUF, according to holtankoljak.hu. At the same time, the value of fuel has fallen again in recent days, and from April 1 it will be even cheaper to buy it.
What drives prices?
It is mainly influenced by the price of crude oil on the world market and the dollar guilder exchange rate. When the price of fuel fell below three hundred guilders a year ago, it was an extreme situation. The price of crude, which is the raw material for fuel, has fallen to record lows, below twenty dollars, which was unprecedented in almost a decade, and even less for a few hours.
– said Ottó Grád, general secretary of the Hungarian Petroleum Association, to the Index, adding that the price of crude is now around 60-70 dollars per barrel, but this does not mean that the fuel would be delivered between six and seven times the value previous.
According to the Secretary-General, this is explained by the fact that more than half the price of fuel is taxed. The excise tax of HUF 125 included in the price of gasoline (as of April 1 it will decrease to HUF 120 due to the change in the world market price of crude oil) is still subject to VAT, so only the tax amounts to HUF 160, so
if the fuel were delivered free at the well, he would still have to pay 160 florins for it.
Thus, the increase was significant compared to the low price of fuel a year ago, as the forint weakened against the dollar and the price of crude oil on the world market also rose.
Last week, however, the price of gasoline and diesel began to fall, in part because the launch of the vaccines at the end of the year was followed by optimism, saying that we will soon have control of the epidemiological situation and economies can recover. In the case of crude oil, this meant an increase in demand, which pushed prices up, with Brent rising to $ 70 two weeks ago.
But optimism is a thing of the past, the deepening of the third wave has overturned everything, and it is already clear that the epidemic situation will be postponed, then comes the period when economies can operate without restrictions. As a result, the rise in the price of crude oil stopped, recovering to around $ 60 in the last two weeks, which also caused a drop in the price of gasoline.
– said Otto Grád, who says that the price of oil will remain in the range of $ 60-70 in the near future.
There is another important factor influencing the change in fuel prices in Hungary, and it is the special band tax introduced a few years ago. This means,
If the price of oil is less than $ 50, the gasoline tax will increase by five guilders per liter, the diesel tax will increase by ten guilders per liter, and if it exceeds $ 50, it will decrease by the same amount.
For this reason, in the last nine months, the excise duty period for gasoline was 125 HUF instead of 120 HUF, while for diesel it was 120 HUF instead of 110 HUF. This will be reviewed quarterly and as the average price of crude oil will be above $ 60, the period of excise duty on fuel will resume from April 1, which means that the fuel can be sold at a lower cost, which means that it is expected to be even cheaper.
In addition, there are specific situations that affect prices, such as Hurricane Katrina, which significantly damaged the region, capacity and production of US refineries, despite the availability of crude oil in the market.
The US market is a much more gasoline-centric market than the European market, where diesel consumption is higher. However, serious gasoline production fell in the United States, thus increasing the demand of Americans for quality European gasoline, so the price of gasoline in Hungary increased even though the price of crude oil had risen or risen. the forint had weakened.
– said Otto Grád to the Index, who also mentioned that electric cars will certainly have an impact on prices in the long term, but at the moment this is not noticeable at all, as they are not so widespread.
(Cover image: He places the filling gun in its refueling location at a gas station on January 25, 2017. Photo: Balázs Mohai / MTI
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