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Since September, it has been worth keeping track of the death rates associated with the coronavirus, as the virus has thankfully had hardly any casualties before that. What was a trend and a regularity until then is no longer visible for about two weeks. Let the details come.
Reality has strayed from trends
According to trends, the number of cases doubles in a period of approximately two weeks; of course, a major or major change can be observed. This is true for hospital treated patients, ventilator patients, and deaths alike. It is also observed that the deaths follow a delay of two weeks in the number of hospital admissions and ventilators. It is possible and worthwhile to start with these two. You can see our calculations on this here.
The increase in those treated in the hospital and ventilated is still visible to this day. In comparison, this trend is not followed by current deaths.
Until the first week of November, a doubling was observed even here: 619 had died that week, 252 two weeks earlier. There were 394 deaths in the last week of October, which means that there were 800 deaths in the second week of November. By comparison, the tribe reported 659 cases. This trend continues even now, with the number of deaths per day not exceeding one hundred. That’s less than 700 deaths for the entire week. However, the expectations are much more than 1200-1300 cases.
So you made a mistake in math now? He is not used to that.
As the number of infected people increases, so does the number of people hospitalized. And as a result, the number of people who need a ventilator or die is also increasing. That is, as the number of active infections increases, so does the number of people needing hospital care.
The impact of the tightening is not yet visible
The tightening started on November 11, so a reduction in the spread of the virus will only be seen recently. After the introduction of the restrictions, the number of new infections begins to decline first, followed by a two-week delay in the number of intensive cases in hospitals and, finally, deaths.
For those who are now infected, it will be decided in the coming weeks how many will need hospital treatment, either in the Covid ward or in the intensive care unit. In other words, the period in which the daily number of people hospitalized, ventilated and even deceased later begins to decline can only come in a few weeks.
By comparison, the numbers show that the death toll is essentially stagnant, and as if the numbers were in the eye, the daily figure isn’t much more than a hundred; there were still fluctuations last week, but the numbers are already changing militarily this week.
On October 31 there were 4,000 patients in the hospital. Ten days later, 6000. The number of deaths did not follow that increase.
But that seems pretty unlikely. This would mean that, although the number of people cared for in the hospital and intensive care unit is constantly increasing, fewer die. In other words, although the healthcare system is beginning to saturate and the number of patients is increasing, recovery and survival rates are constantly improving. However, the opposite should be the case, as more and more patients are receiving the same number and, in fact, fewer and fewer healthcare workers and doctors.
Based on the recovery rate of 40 percent of patients who are connected to the ventilator, we would have between 150 and 200 deaths a day. By comparison, the tribe reports fewer than 100 deaths, which means that on paper, less than 10 percent of intensive care units die.
Orbán doesn’t help with clairvoyance either
On November 6, Viktor Orbán painted a rather bleak picture of the period to come. That day we had 391 compatriots connected to a fan. The prime minister has predicted that 2,240 intensive beds will be needed on November 21. Orbán also added that 4,480 intensive hospital beds and 30-32 thousand will be needed by December 11. We tried to create a scenario that would result in this situation, but we could hardly change the situation so much that the numbers came out. Perhaps that is why, perhaps because of another: the latest combination of numbers published on November 4 no longer included expectations but existing capacities: more than 13,000 hospital beds and 1,600 intensive care units are still available. So including what’s already booked, there are roughly 20,000 beds and 2,200 intensive beds, the latter being only half of the first expectation. Neither Orbán nor the operational staff explained the difference between the two numbers.
Weaknesses in the provision of data
The operational strain does not publish detailed, county or hospital data so we can only trust what the strain shares. The fact that these data are not always reliable was well demonstrated by the joke a few days ago. Three days ago, according to statistics, a little more than 6,000 tests were carried out, compared to almost 6,500 infected. The tribe tried to explain the anomaly, according to which the necessary data was not collected in time. This was confirmed by before and after test numbers: before the 6,000th day, the strain reported 28 and then more than 27,000 tests, while the average number of daily tests was around 20,000.
In addition, the infected data broken down by county is also changing rapidly. There may be an administrative problem in the background, which means that the exact data is simply not always available and must be corrected later. Based on all this, we can reason to assume that the other numbers and data are not necessarily accurate either. This is reinforced by leaked information from the industry that collecting and recording data is cumbersome in almost every area.
If this is the background of the strange data, the correction for this will have to appear sooner or later. This should probably mean a sudden jump in the data.
There was almost certainly an example of this on a small scale: On November 9, the tribe reported only 55 deaths, and the next day, 103. Other than that, there have been five similar jumps in numbers since September. The data provided is choppy, the differences between the individual daily numbers are significant, even 30-50 percent is typical. Except for the last ten days: the figures showed a difference of only 14 percent during this period. There has been no example of this since September.
The big question for the coming days and weeks will be whether or not we can find an explanation for the strange figures.
(Cover image: Viktor Orbán, Sándor Pintér, Antal Rogán and Zoltán Kovács at the meeting of the operational personnel responsible for the control of the coronavirus epidemic at the Ministry of the Interior on September 26, 2020. Photo: Zoltán Fischer / MTI)
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