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If current trends in Hungary continue, the situation will soon turn catastrophic, writes Magyar Hang, describing the forecast from the Institute for Health Measurement and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.
Forecasts from one of the world’s most recognized and trusted research institutes for shaping health trends, backed by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, are changing day by day in light of the latest data, so Saturday’s figures they are a little different from the ones Magyar Hang wrote on Friday night.
However, the order of magnitude did not change:
By the end of the year, there could be more than 11,000 victims of the epidemic, which could culminate in December with 8,000 actual new infections (that is, not just officially registered) per day. During this period, the number of daily deaths will exceed 200, and in the last days of the year, 229 will die every day, according to the institute’s forecast.
These calculations are based on current statistics and restrictive measures, but in its graphs, the institute also models how the numbers would turn out if they smoothed the fit further (this is unlikely) or if everyone used a mask. In the latter case, the outlook is more favorable, but 135 people still die on the last day of the year, according to the forecast, and the epidemic would peak with 20,000 new infections per day between December 9 and 17.
This week Jakab Ferenc The virologist also spoke that if more serious measures are not taken, the number of infections will increase dramatically in the next month. “If we rush towards our loss like a fast train in this trend, we will be depleting our health capabilities very quickly and it could be a problem,” said the specialist, who was appointed head of the government’s coronavirus investigation team in the spring. Balázs Orbán however, the deputy minister responded to his words that “there were such riots even during the first wave.”
Featured Image: AFP
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