In addition to Orban, the Polish government also seeks a solution to the battered situation, only the disintegration of the government is at stake.

It seems that after ten years of continuous war, that Hungary has fought against the European Union, a conflict has arisen that cannot be won by brute force. The rule of law mechanism, which would allow the suspension of EU payments to increasingly authoritarian countries, will pass through the EU even if Hungary and Poland threaten to veto the entire EU budget. The idea of ​​a rule of law mechanism is two years old and has now received such a boost that it cannot be stopped. Mainly because all the Member States, except Hungary and Poland, agree with its creation, and in several places it has become an internal political issue to finally hold the Hungarians and Poles accountable.

Although the veto makes it difficult to accept the mechanism, it is not impossible. As it stands, if Hungary and Poland do not vote on the EU budget and the € 750 billion coronavirus rescue package, an alternative plan will take effect. Accordingly, the budget will continue with previously established plans, modeled on the previous seven-year budget. This is not good for Hungary, because although we received more support in the previous seven-year cycle than we will receive now, most of the money did not go pro rata, but rather programs, and these will not continue.

With the exception of Hungary and Poland, the other 25 member states may accept the rescue package of historic size and importance (for the first time, the EU would jointly borrow to reimburse from new sources) as an intergovernmental agreement, in some way with the European Stability Mechanism after 2008. This is inconvenient for the EU, because shared responsibility would have been a step forward for the alliance, in addition to delaying the package by two to three months, but it seems to be accepted even if we tell it that no.

And a qualified majority in the council is enough to adopt the rule of law mechanism, so Hungary and Poland cannot stop it. We have already written it Viktor Orban it appears to be in a defeated position in its biggest battle in the EU to date. This is mainly due to the fact that the EU reacted exceptionally decisively to a situation where the Hungarian Prime Minister wanted to force a development that was politically unpleasant for him. What is happening now is that Orbán is trying to get away with defeat with as little face loss as possible.

It is not a monolithic matrix

But not only Hungary is in a critical position on the veto, but also Poland, just for a different reason. There, the fate of the ruling coalition depends on it.

Last week, a big dust was raised when the Polish Prime Minister, Jaroslaw Gowin announced that the Poles may be willing to reconsider their veto if the EU adopts a binding declaration that sounds like a shock at first, that the mechanism will be applied objectively.

The next day, Orbán announced that Hungary would maintain the veto, and later the Polish Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki He also said that they also have no change and that they will only accept a solution that is good for both nations. There was also speculation about who was telling the truth about the two Polish politicians and what the purpose of Gowin’s announcement might have been.

To understand this, we need to know that the Polish ruling party is not as monolithic as Fidesz, where everything depends on Orban’s will.

The last parliamentary election was a disappointment Jaroslaw Kaczynskinak, the current leader of Polish Law and Justice (PiS). Kaczynski is nominally only the party chairman and deputy prime minister, but he wields real power over Polish politics. In the 2019 elections, PiS won again, but alone it could not form a government.

Small party success

Although the PiS has gained more than any party since the regime change, the Polish ruling coalition is made up of several parties, and of the smallest, Consensus and United Poland are also important. Polish politics is quite right-wing, even the largest opposition party, the Civic Platform, is conservative and is integrated into the European People’s Party in the European Parliament. The ruling Law and Justice is even more right-wing, and the two small parties are on either side of PiS.

The consensus is more centrist than PiS, as it is led by Gowin, a deputy prime minister who has left the Civic Platform. And United Poland is a far-right far-right party than the largest ruling party, which Zbigniew Ziobro controlled by the Minister of Justice.

Both parties send about a dozen and a half deputies to the lower house of parliament, where each is individually needed to obtain a majority in the right-wing coalition. And both parties have a tradition of going against the will of the leader of the main ruling party at times. More so because Kaczynski intends to have Prime Minister Morawiecki succeed him, while Ziobro sees himself as the political heir to the PiS. Therefore, the power struggles between the Prime Minister and the Minister of Justice are almost continuous.

More recently, the coalition nearly disintegrated because Kaczynski wanted to push through an animal welfare law. In Poland, there was a huge echo of a video showing minks in an inhuman environment eating each other in a Polish plant. Kaczynski is famous for his love of animals, which is why he began to demand a ban on the cultivation of fur and the use of circus animals. United Poland, on the other hand, supplemented by the right wing of PiS, felt that this was going to be harsh against the agricultural base of the right wing coalition.

The coalition eventually held together, but still depends on a bare minimum to not crumble. Morawiecki may not support the EU budget veto, but he is doing Kaczynski’s will more than his own. And the head of the Consensus, Deputy Prime Minister Gowin, clearly opposes the veto, while Ziobro supports it.

The fragility of the coalition

In the current situation, however, any small party loses the coalition, leaving the majority in the lower house of parliament. This would be all the more inconvenient given the fact that the opposition already has a majority in the upper house. What’s more, PiS doesn’t do particularly well in polls, so Kaczynski would definitely like to avoid a new election. The current situation is a stalemate in which both the veto and its revocation could lead to the disintegration of the ruling coalition.

Probably due to political coercion, there is still a greater possibility that Poles will eventually be persuaded to avoid a veto.

as many people think from the beginning that Viktor Orbán has captured the Polish government for his own game, while Poland urgently needs the money from the rescue package.

If they veto, they will not receive anything from this rescue package, while the amount of regular subsidies will also be reduced.

Some Poles also have a problem with the fact that corruption in Poland is not as centralized as it is in Hungary, so criticism against them is also fundamentally related to the judicial system. Therefore, they do not like the fact that they are treated together with Hungary, as if they also want to achieve this at any cost, so that they cannot be held accountable for reducing EU subsidies.