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Europe and Hungary
Antony Blinkent, the expected next Secretary of State of the United States, has several personal ties to Hungary: His mother, Judith Blinken, is a grandmother of Hungarian descent Jewish descent who immigrated to the United States at the beginning of the previous century. Under the presidency of his father, Donald Blinken, Bill Clinton was the United States ambassador to Hungary from 1994 to 1998, and his second wife, Antony Blinken’s adoptive mother, Vera Blinken, was also of Hungarian descent, who emigrated after the Second World War.
Donald Blinken also has a good relationship with György Soros, a significant amount of money was donated to the Central European University (CEU) for the creation of the Open Society Archives (OSA), which also took the name of the Blinken couple. The Hungarian nation also wrote that Donald Blinken supported the Horn government over Viktor Orbán, but this appears to be some kind of undercover demonstration rather than overt lobbying activity. It is also important to note that in the 1990s there was not as serious a political conflict between George Soros and Viktor Orbán as it is today, 22 years after the departure of Donald Blinken.
Although there is much talk about Donald Blinken’s relations with Hungary, perhaps it would be a bit hasty to characterize the expected actions of the next chancellor on the basis of the activities of the former ambassador two and a half decades ago. Antony Blinken has been around Joe Biden for a long time, but so far he has not made significant statements against Hungary or the Orbán government; Based on these, many doors are still open.
Most Hungarian media and political actors expect the relationship between Hungary and the United States to be cold during the Biden government, but it cannot be completely ruled out that the new United States government recognizes the strategic importance of the region and the ideological differences. Despite their record, they seek to maintain improved relations under Trump.
The latter, of course a less likely scenarioBut multibillion dollar arms purchase deals with the United States can do a lot:
Tony Blinken’s position on the European Union is much clearer. Politico Blinken describes him as a “passionate believer” in the EU’s transatlantic cooperation. In 2016, he described Europe as a “vital partner” and called it a “strategic mistake” for the United States to begin withdrawing its troops from Germany. He believes the decision “will weaken NATO, strengthen Putin and harm Germany, the United States’ most important ally in Europe.”
Based on these, we are likely to forget the customs war, the trade dispute, the troop withdrawal policy against the EU that Trump had just embarked on at the end of his presidency and
Blinken is likely to pressure Biden to deepen military and economic cooperation with the EU.
Trump’s confrontational policy against the EU was beneficial because Union leaders realized that the continent’s economy and forces should function without the United States; We hope that this conception, with the intervention of Biden and Blinken, is not completely extinguished.
By the way, Blinken lived in France as a child and speaks French perfectly.
Near east
Based on their political work to date, Joe Biden and Tony Blinken also appear to be much more in favor of military interventions than Donald Trump., this may be a key issue in relation to the turbulent political climate in the Middle East. Joe Biden, for example, also supported the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, but also suggested tougher intervention in the Arab Spring conflicts. During his 2007-2008 presidential campaign, Joe Biden also launched an idea proposing to divide Iraq into 3 parts.
Blinken, on the other hand, is even more aggressive than his boss when it comes to the issue of military intervention in the Middle East.
He also called the Russian intervention in the Syrian conflict a “failure” like Undersecretary of State John Kerry, and during the Trump administration said that the United States had also failed in Syria because it “did not use sufficient force.” He also supported military intervention in Libya and Yemen., would have supported the Saudi coalition in this latest conflict, while in Libya, in 2011, would have supported the rebels against Gaddafi.
Based on these, we are likely to see a more aggressive Middle East and Africa policy from the Biden government; if Biden had also promised not to start “unnecessary” wars, but Blinken could be pressuring his boss to intervene in minor conflicts as well.
Whether in the Obama or Trump era, these are likely to be drone strikes, rapid ops operations with special ops units, and interventions with smaller contingents without a formal declaration of war.
This will generate little press coverage and political opposition, but will ensure that American interests are defended in the Middle East.
Regarding Iran, by the way, the Biden administration will take a more peaceful approach than Trump, as we write here:
Israel is also an important issue, as under the Trump administration, under the coordination of Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and Foreign Minister Mike Pompeo, the Arab countries have begun to reconcile with the Jewish state. Times of Israel analysts expect Blinken will continue the Israeli policy of the centrist Democrats, that is, he will resist the rhetoric of the progressive lobby that criticizes Israel. and will continue to treat the Middle Eastern state as an important ally and supporter.
You will also have a good chance to actively participate in coordinating the reconciliation process between the Arab countries and Israel. Michael Oren, a former US ambassador to Israel, described Blinken as
he cannot think of anyone more apt to occupy the position of foreign minister.
China and North Korea
Joe Biden is unlikely to follow that customs war policy, that Donald Trump started against China, but promised you won’t even run the world’s second-largest economy with one gloved hand and will continue to work to eliminate trade imbalances and protect American jobs.
Blinken will be able to bring exactly what Biden wants in this area: a non-aggressive chancellor, willing to negotiate and cooperate, but who doesn’t even stick his head in the sand over certain problems.
However, it will not be easy to do it with China: the Asian country has recently “ absorbed ” most of the United States’ allies in the Far East (almost all except India) through the RCEP trade agreement, and the relations between the two countries have collapsed under the Trump presidency.
Still there North Korea also, that it could have more than a hundred atomic bombs by the time Joe Biden takes office in January. Joe Biden has so far dealt with the threat of nuclear power so much that they “need to be negotiated” and the situation Blinken doesn’t have a clear solution either.
South Korean media speculate that the new foreign minister is likely to be actively involved in the union of America’s regional allies against North Korea, but
THE BIDEN GOVERNMENT’S ACTION AGAINST KIM JONGGUN IS PROBABLY MUCH MORE QUIET AND MORE RESPONSIBLE THAN WHAT TRUMP HAS PRODUCED.
How does Biden-Blinken’s more cautious approach pay off compared to Trump’s policy when it comes to denuclearizing North Korea? Not likely.
Cover image: Getty Images
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