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The coronavirus crisis is likely to lead to the largest decline in anthropogenic carbon emissions, followed by a low-carbon economic recovery, Goldman Sachs said. In response to the epidemic and in late April to prevent its spread, restrictive government measures were introduced in 187 countries, affecting virtually the entire population and the economy. Among the few positive side effects of measures targeting social services, community life and direct economic activity, a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is clearly at the forefront. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, then
Carbon emissions from the global energy economy, which accounts for about two-thirds of total global greenhouse gas emissions, could drop at least 5.4 percent this year. This would mean a reduction approximately five times greater than that caused by the 2008 global economic crisis.
However, the drop in CO2 emissions could be much greater than this, depending on how long the planned and unplanned decline in the transport sector and industrial activity lasts. Until now, it has been characteristic that even if emissions related to energy production and use weakened as a result of a crisis, they recovered after the crisis, that is, they returned to higher levels, Goldman recalls. This is true in addition to the fact that after major crises, carbon intensity has always improved since the 1970s, meaning that the amount of greenhouse gases emitted per unit of gross domestic product has decreased.
However, the current crisis may be different from previous ones in that CO2 emissions will no longer necessarily return to pre-crisis levels, analysts at Goldman say. If your predictions are correct, the world may already have left the peak of emissions behind, which could also be of great importance in the fight against climate change. In fact, according to benchmarks, for humanity to avoid catastrophic climate change, it will have to make the economy carbon neutral by the middle of the century, a goal that will require it to gradually reduce and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. approximately from 2020 onwards.
However, previous predictions made before the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic showed that the chances of real change around 2020 were quite slim. According to the latest estimate by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the peak of global greenhouse gas emissions could occur even a decade later, sometime around 2030, in this case optimistic. However, a study published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in February showed that global energy-related carbon emissions did not increase in 2019, which means that, in principle, we can even exceed the peak of emissions. Later, Faith Birol, Executive Director of the IEA, said that as a result of the progress made in transforming the energy production mix, 2019-2020 could even mark a spike in CO2 emissions related to energy consumption.
At the same time, Goldman emphasizes that more significant efforts are needed to ensure that global greenhouse gas emissions continue to drop rapidly in line with climate protection goals. The sustainability of the process depends mainly on the path that governments worldwide take to revive the economy. Economic recovery measures offer the opportunity to further develop a clean and green energy system and sustainability, but, especially in emerging countries, increase the role of coal and other fossil resources by temporarily shifting climate considerations to the background. It may also be among the options. Today, in most parts of the world, fossil-based production is cheaper than renewable energy, especially when the price of the polluting activity resulting from the latter is not paid, for example, similar to the European Scheme of Emissions Trading.
The fact that the risk is real indicates that in China, the framework to support new solar power plants was halved in March and support for new offshore wind farms was completely suspended in an effort to reduce the load. on the central budget.
China, the world’s largest carbon emitter and renewable energy market, has a key role to play in many ways: if it is the first to fight the virus and the most advanced in economic recovery, the Asian giant will focus on coal and other fossil fuels. it can lead to a renewed increase in the country’s CO2 emissions. But the real danger could be that such a Chinese decision could set a dangerous precedent for other emerging states, making it acceptable for them to return to polluting energy sources, “says Bob Ward, director of CNBC’s Grantham Climate Change Research Institute. at the London School of Economics.
In this context, climate researchers say it is important that the climate threat, such as the coronavirus epidemic, be recognized as a global health crisis. Life after the epidemic is expected to never be the same as before, and the coronavirus may even cause a fundamental transformation of the economic environment. In addition to all the tragic consequences of the epidemic, it has opened up new opportunities for a sustainable economy that we did not anticipate a few months ago, says Gail Whiteman, director of the Pentland Center for Sustainable Economics at Lancaster University. It is important for governments around the world to understand that climate change must not be addressed through restrictions against the epidemic, but through green growth, which can break the link between economic growth and pollution and further reduce CO2 emissions, Ward said. However, if policymakers still opt for high-carbon economic reconstruction, humanity will be even more vulnerable to the risks of climate change.
Cover image: Getty Images
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