How does Mol see the future? What will the dividend be?

• In the Brent-type oil price, instead of the previous 50-70, Mol expects only an oil price of 40-60 dollars per barrel for the period 2021-2025.
• The price of natural gas can be between 12-28 EUR / MWh instead of the 15-20 previously expected.
• Margins for mol refineries can be as low as $ 3-4 per barrel instead of 4-5, while petrochemical margins can range between 300 and 400 euros per ton.
• The price of a carbon quota may already be much higher in the 2021-2025 period, compared to the average price of 12 euros in the last 9 years, at 50 euros.

Of the above items, the biggest impact on the estimated net EBITDA at repurchase prices is the $ 10 change in oil prices.

Mol had an estimated net EBITDA at repurchase prices of $ 2 billion last year, management expects $ 2.3 billion this year, and EBITDA could increase to $ 2.6 billion by 2025.

Overall, the economic recovery will play a key role in achieving the 2021 EBITDA target, compared to the 2020 result, but higher oil and gas prices and refinery margin growth will play an important role. Reaching the EBITDA target for 2025 will also require Downstream projects and growth in the Consumer Services segment, but the expected decline in earnings in the Upstream segment may worsen EBITDA. The EBITDA increase in 2021 is still largely external, but the improvement in earnings between 2021 and 2025 is already largely due to internal processes, as expected.

Mol spent a total of $ 0.9 billion on sustainable investments last year, with sustainable capital spending averaging $ 1.1 billion annually over the 2021-2025 period.

Between 2021 and 2025, you could spend a total of $ 3.5 billion on the Mol transformation, which is equivalent to almost $ 700 million annually.

Mol’s management plans for the dividend in the coming years is paramount for investors. The presentation states that a fair, sustainable and stable basic dividend, which can roughly correspond to the 2019 level (95 HUF per share, dividend yield of 4.4 percent calculated at the current exchange rate), also plays an important role between capital allocation priorities. .can be considered by management if cash production is above expectations and if all transformation investment costs are covered. An annual dividend of $ 250 million is planned. Mol would pay dividends primarily in cash, but as in 2020, the share buyback is also an option.

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