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Whereas the four largest majority groups in the European Parliament have now drawn up a resolution with a war message, which covers all legal instruments (including a motion of no confidence and a refusal to settle the EU accounts, which led to the resignation of the then Commission in 1999), was forced to send forceful messages to reassure MEPs to von der Leyen on the application of the rule of law mechanism.
At the same time, he wanted the House to agree to the 2021-2027 budget (because the EP has the right to approve this issue) and meanwhile the EP would “swallow the frog” that the 31-page focus and applicability of the state of rights were modified by a 4-page political agreement approved at last week’s EU summit, which von der Leyen also guaranteed in writing. Of course, the Council Legal Service also wrote that the 4-page Council guideline did not contradict the 31-page regulation, nor did it supplement or amend it (this was kind to the Dutch Prime Minister and now the EP), but the lawyers Only the textual interpretation could be recorded, not the spirit of the 4-page article. And it is in practice, it limits it through clarifications and concretizations the range of possible areas in which sanctioning proceedings could be initiated and the practical applicability of the Regulation itself has been extended beyond a possible ruling by the European Court of Justice.
To cover all this, von der Leyen only emphasized that the insertion of the 4-page document did not change the wording of the rule of law. In practice, however, the Commission can only finalize its applicability guidelines after a ruling by the European Court of Justice, so that it can only initiate and prove an infringement of the rule of law that is sufficiently directly linked to the budget of the EU.
By the way, Ursula von der Leyen practically said this in one of the sentences of her carefully compiled speech today, as she put it this way:
And it is natural that if there is a court case on the underlying regulation, we take into account the judgment of the Court of Justice of the European Communities when finalizing the guidelines.
This was exactly what was included in the Council conclusions at last week’s EU summit and generated the “war message” indicated above. Von der Leyen tried to take the lead in the situation by promised that all violations of the rule of law would be recorded from the entry into force of the rule of law mechanism on January 1, 2021, individual cases and systemic offenses, and will return to them once they have finalized their “handbook” based on a court ruling.
Words to reassure MEPs then ended with the conclusion that if any Member State brought the rule of law before the Court of Justice of the European Communities, the two institutions would work together to defend it and He expressed the hope that the EP (as the accused) would then request an expedited sentence from the Court.
In practice, therefore, the president of the Commission has promised that as soon as the outlook is clear to them with the court ruling, they will return to the cases already registered since the beginning of 2021, if there is no change in them in the meantime.
As we concluded last week: Hungary and Poland are expected to demand the rule of law in March, and even if the Court hears the EP’s request for an expedited trial, it can be sentenced to 4-6 months minimum, but more talk of a period of 9 months. In Brussels.
Only then will the Commission be in a position, in consultation with the Member States, to finalize the guidelines and the application manual for the mechanism on the basis of the judgment. Then, if the body sees a demonstrable violation of the rule of law somewhere that is sufficiently directly linked to the EU budget, it can initiate a seven- to nine-month sanction mechanism against that Member State. This launch could take place around next fall at the earliest.
As already described:
In light of all this, there is simply no realistic timetable according to which EU-funded sanctions, if any, could be imposed on the country before the Hungarian parliamentary elections scheduled for April 2022.
Moreover, it is in the deck that all this will happen much later, because there are still preconditions for the regulation to begin to apply, which are not yet clear. According to the Regulation, the mechanism is only complementary in the EU toolbox, so the Commission should, in principle, exhaust the possibilities of non-compliance / financial corrections before starting or, if it considers that they would not be effective, it can only initiate sanctions effectively. And if the Court does not issue an expedited ruling, the question of a possible EU-funded sanction would move further in the future.
Cover Image Source: Martin Bertrand / European Commission / Bloomberg via Getty Images
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