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Party support data has barely changed in the past month, according to a recent Závecz Research poll.
The Fidesz camp grew from 31 to 36 percent between March and August, and has now dropped a bit to 34 percent. Of the opposition parties, DK remains the strongest, with the same proportion of supporters as last month, at 10 percent. Momentum is again at 7 percent, Jobbik at 6 percent, followed by the MSZP with an unchanged result of 5 percent. Diálogo, LMP and Nuestro País are from 2% to 2%, the Party of the Two-Tailed Dog is 1%. The proportion of nonpartisan has increased from 28% to 30%.
In the safe party group of voters, Fidesz has 50 percent, and DK has the best result so far, 18 percent. Momentum has a 10 percent circle of supporters among active voters, while Jobbik has 9 percent and the MSZP 6 percent. This month, support from Our Country, LMP and Dialogue is the same among pledged voters – reaching 2-2 percent. Two-tailed dog camp is 1 percent. – These are the most interesting results of a survey conducted by the ZRI Závecz Research Institute in mid-September among the country’s adult population.
The combined support of Fidesz and the six parties that participate in the opposition cooperation is very close: the ruling party leads 34-32 among the entire electorate and 50-47 among the voters of the safe party.
The advantage of Fidesz is that its voting field has long been stable in size and more or less in composition. In this legislature, the lowest support for the ruling party was 31 percent, the highest 36 percent, and the median 33 percent. The unity of the opposition, on the other hand, is taking shape and, as we showed last month, voters of the parties in question have a strong preference for a common single list of more than 90 percent, and their need for individual candidates. Common was measured in the spring.
As long as the sociological and demographic composition of the Fidesz camp is itself fairly balanced, the opposition parties can work together to ensure broad social integration. DK and MSZP are popular with voters over 60, and both parties achieve nearly twice the support rate of the total population of this group (18 and 9 percent, respectively). Momentum is especially popular with those under 30, second only to Fidesz in this age group, at 13 percent. Jobbik is more popular than average in his thirties and forties, with 9 percent support.
The voting fields of the opposition parties also differ somewhat by educational level: Jobbik is more popular with the skilled, DK and Momentum are among the graduates; the support rates are one and a half times higher than those measured within the total population.
Among the peculiarities of the settlements, it should be noted that most opposition parties have strong roots, especially in the cities. MSZP is strong in the capital (9%), SE in small and medium-sized cities (14%), Momentum in all types of cities (9-10%). In addition to small towns, Jobbik is better able to attract village voters to the cooperation of the opposition: 10-10 percent.
Pro-government voters are slightly more active than opponents as a whole: 55% and 51%, respectively, of those who promise a secure turnout. However, there are significant differences between the latter, while, for example, 61% of DKs would certainly be there in the current elections, 30% of LMPs and 44% of MSZPs.
Featured image: Ludovic MARIN / AFP
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