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The data reported daily cannot provide adequate guidance on the true trend of the epidemic. Not all cases can be detected with current testing capabilities. That is, the epidemic curve would rise even more, but it cannot, because the basis is the number of cases confirmed by laboratory tests, which today is a bottleneck in Hungary, said those responsible for the epidemiology working group of the Ministry of Innovation in the InfoRádió Arena program.
Regarding the future development of the epidemic, Gergely Röst, a mathematician at the University of Szeged, said that perhaps one of the most difficult questions to predict at the moment is that the number of tests did not keep pace with the increase in cases in The last weeks. what is the real trend of the epidemic.
If the proportion of positive daily cases increases with the same number of tests, it can be assumed that there are more and more infected, but it is not possible to deduce exactly the increase in actual infection because it is not clearly related to the positivity rate.
Beatrix Oroszi, a medical epidemiologist at Semmelweis University, says that there is a very wrong assumption that we have more positive results because we do more tests. This in itself would be true, that there are more cases just because of the tests, while the epidemiological situation does not change, if the positivity were reduced accordingly.
The problem, however, is that if the number of cases actually increases, then the limit and the upper limit of the tests will also determine the number of all existing infections that we will be able to detect.
– explained the doctor-epidemiologist in the program, adding that his data underscores that not all cases can be detected with the current testing capacity.
In other words, the epidemic curve would go up even higher, but you don’t know, because the base is the number of cases confirmed by laboratory tests, the bottleneck of which is the number of tests we can perform in Hungary in one day.
So,
not because our epidemic is not progressing, but because our testability has reached its upper limit.
The average age of identified cases is increasing, which means that, sadly, an increase in critical cases is expected in the coming days and weeks, Beatrix Oroszi said.
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