Economy: Trumps has exceeded target, although Biden could really fall for Ukraine

If the US campaign had turned out the way the right wanted, everything would now be noisy from the word Burisma, Joe Biden would be embarrassed to explain, and Donald Trump if he was not prepared for a comfortable victory, but would have a serious chance of re-election. By comparison, the Burisma case has not become a major scandal so far. However, politicians can really get caught up in this matter.

If we want to summarize very briefly what the latest quasi-scandal in American politics is all about, we have to go back to 2014. Joe Biden was then Vice President of the United States and was assigned the task of taking care of Ukrainian affairs. Ukraine went through a revolution that winter, the country’s new leaders took a spectacularly pro-Western turn, with Biden negotiating five times a year in Kiev. The investigations began with great impetus into the alleged cases of corruption before the revolution, and quickly died. Leaders of the ruling party, but also of the EU, the US, and the World Bank, clearly saw that this was the reason why Attorney General Viktor Sokin was sabotaging the investigations, leading to Sokin’s firing in 2016.

This is where Burisma, the only purely privately owned gas company, owned on paper by Cypriots but owned by a Ukrainian oligarch, Mykola Zlochevsky, came into the picture through a complex network of companies. Zlochevsky, who had previously issued gas extraction permits to his own company as Minister of the Environment in the pro-Russian government, got the word of the changing times and began filling the company’s management with Americans.

Among them was Hunter Biden, the son of the vice president.

He had no experience in energy matters and was hired as legal director. It has been raised by many even then, even from Democratic circles: at least it is unethical to use the son of the US vice president in this way, but it also raises suspicions of corruption. It wouldn’t have been a huge surprise if Hunter Biden had resigned, he didn’t, would remain in office until 2019 until his term expired, or if Joe Biden was mentioned in this case in his presidential campaign.

But it seems that the Donald Trumps wanted to shed too much on the story and went way beyond the finish line. In 2019, when it became increasingly clear that Joe Biden could be Trump’s challenger in this year’s presidential election, the matter was resolved again. Trump’s staff didn’t have enough to shout unethical or suspicious corruption, they had a bigger goal:

they wanted to show that Joe Biden had fired the Attorney General of Ukraine so that no investigation could be carried out against the company that employs Hunter Bident.

And that fought back more than Republicans could hope for. It is one thing that the United States legislature established a Republican-led commission of inquiry that ruled that nothing illegal had happened, which would have caused Joe Biden to lose the trust of most Americans. But Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s lawyer, got into a fight and this occurred to him: In Kiev, Budapest and Vienna, he found evidence against the two Bidens that could end their careers. It was later revealed that the alleged revelation was just a few allegations, without any evidence, and two businessmen with mixed backgrounds who offered connections to the Ukrainian investigation were arrested because it turned out they wanted to help the Trump campaign with Russian money.

And for Giuliani to dig even deeper into the pit he entered: he himself boasted multiple times that both he and Trump had tried to pressure new Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to restart the Burisma investigation and seek evidence against Biden. However, if an American president does that, it is an abuse of power; that was the reason for initiating the constitutional prosecution of Trump.

Then the process failed with the Republican majority in the Senate, Biden actually became a presidential candidate in early 2020, and the campaign focused more on the epidemic and the economy than it was in Burisma. In this situation, we have reached October 14, 2020.

“Secret Emails from Biden” – Posted with this address New York Post a lengthy report, including several letters, about Joe Biden pressuring the Ukrainian government to replace the chief prosecutor at the request of his son. The otherwise compromised pro-Trump tabloid also mentioned a smoking gun, and these two words carry a lot of weight in American politics, which is why in the Watergate case, the sound recording was named after him, so it stuck. of course Richard Nixon could no longer defend himself. But NY Post With the smoking gun, he still appears to have been shot in the foot.

It quickly became clear that at most points in the story, he gave the appearance of a clumsy forgery rather than his true investigative journalism. The beginning is strange: according to the newspaper, someone delivered a laptop at a service station, the visually impaired mechanic only suspects that it could have been Hunter Biden, and then when no one requested the machine for three months, they searched the service and they found suspicious mail there. . If this didn’t in itself resemble a Category D spy movie, the NY Post You covered up your personal information so poorly that it was easy to get to the owner of the service, who was involved in a matter of self-control over what had actually happened in minutes.

But that was just the beginning. Many noted that the letters that served as evidence were not published, but images of PDF files made with them were inserted. Then the metadata revealed that there was a letter that required four hours of work that would otherwise be a copy and paste task,

and the authenticity is further undermined by the fact that it is clearly apparent from one of the key letters which was not taken from the incoming letters but from the letters sent by the sender.

That was enough to destroy the revealing story. This was helped by the fact that Facebook and Twitter, recalling that a serious Russian disinformation campaign fueled the Trump campaign in 2016, now did not disclose the NY Post unveiling and then withdrew. Republicans are demanding an FBI investigation, if it was only four years ago that Hillary Clinton’s popularity began to plummet when, 11 days before the election, it became clear whether the FBI was investigating whether Clinton had committed a crime by sending confidential material. of your private correspondence. . Now there are a little less than 11 days left until the election and, like four years ago, it would take a big change for Trump to be re-elected.

Choice possibilities

Flip a coin three times, if heads all three times, Trump is re-elected. Such is the 12 to 13 percent chance that the FiveThirtyEight statistical model will give the president a victory. Model maker Nate Silver explained this on Twitter: If Trump makes a lot of the downsides in the final week of the campaign, and if there are also measurement errors in the polls, both candidates would have roughly the same chance of success. That is exactly what happened four years ago.

Trump has gotten a little closer to Biden in the past week or two, but his downside is still well beyond the margin of statistical error. Quantitatively, this all means that if Joe Biden wins every state in which he is now measured with an advantage of more than 10 percent, 216 of the 270 voters needed to win are already his. Add to that Michigan (16 voters), Minnesota (10) and Nevada (6), where they now have an 8 percent advantage, and Wisconsin (10), where they now lead by 6 percentage points, is at 258. In Pennsylvania, (20) has a 5 percent lead, which means if he shoots more, he’s the president.

The margin of error is generally set at 2-3 percent, meaning the rest are just over a week away from having to retain Trump. But we also get a 2 percent Biden lead in Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Arizona (11) by averaging the polls, although that’s already the difference that deserves to be treated with caution. In Iowa (6), Georgia (16) and Ohio (18), a Trump lead of less than 1 percent is measured, so if the polls are a little wrong for the president, Biden can already celebrate. Not to mention, Trump’s lead in Texas (38) also fell below the key 2 percent.