Economy: The fall of Szájer may accelerate Fidesz’s departure from the Popular Party

When József Szájer announced his resignation on Sunday, the decision came as a huge surprise within the EP Group of the European People’s Party, and it remained so until the truth was revealed. Regardless of how Szájer left the group, this evolution could affect Fidesz’s position in the largest family of European parties.

Despite the huge Hungarian and international repercussions, it is not the sudden departure of Szájer, but not even the constantly strained Fidesz-People’s Party relationship that is causing problems in the Christian Democrat community, but the Hungarian-Polish budget veto. “This would be a great tragedy for Europe,” said our informant from the Popular Party and there is still no way out of this trap.

“Imperfection” of the Popular Party

In connection with Szájer’s departure, assumptions that Fidesz would leave the Popular Party there alone were confirmed once again, and did not wait for it to be rejected. It is true that there is still a year of room for maneuver in this area, at least according to our current information. Polish People’s Party Chairman Donald Tusk, who has recently been constantly vilified by Fidesz, claimed in the spring that such an issue can only be decided in person, but the epidemic does not provide the opportunity to do so. It should be added that on slightly more important issues, the Council of Heads of State and Government, the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament can also take a position in online meetings and voting. In any case, according to the scenario described by Tusk, sometime in the fall of 2021, the People’s Party event may be held where the Fidesz membership will be put to a vote. Because the issue is still on the agenda, the motion according to which 13 member parties request the termination of the membership of the Hungarian ruling party remains valid.

At the same time, one of our interlocutors, who is otherwise related to the Popular Party, said that it is bad to observe the “imperfection” in the way the Popular Party handles the Fidesz case. According to him, the suspension of party membership, voted in March 2019, does not make much sense if it is not accompanied by a similar deprivation of the exercise of the rights of parliamentary faction. However, the substantive field of work and substantive influence is the European Parliament, but there Fidesz has a vice-president and vice-presidents of the Commission and is a full member of the group. Balázs Hidvéghi alone was not elected vice-president of the Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs, despite having been nominated by the Popular Party on several occasions, the other parties are boycotting the acceptance of the nomination.

More spacious on the outside

Pedró López, spokesman for the parliamentary group of the European People’s Party, told the EUrologist that they too had learned of the resignation from József Szájer’s statement.

It is a personal decision, so the group will not comment on the matter.

The spokesman said. In any case, it is very unusual for an outgoing MP to report not to his own party but to the EP president first, at least officially. This may also deepen the gap between Fidesz and a significant part of the Popular Party, especially since this has not been the only event that has increased tensions in recent days.

The Szájer case coincides with the initiative to exclude Tamás Deutsch, Demeter Szilárd’s gas chamber article, and all of this comes at a time when Viktor Orbán wants to veto the EU budget and recovery fund. “

– Márton Gyöngyösi said at our request. According to the right-wing MEP, Szájer’s role as a bridge builder has already helped Fidesz in many difficult situations, of which it will be lacking in the future, but “it could also mean that Fidesz’s fate within the European People’s Party is already decided. “.

Benedek Jávor, a Dialogue politician, former MEP, also drew attention on Facebook to the fact that not only Szájer, but also the prime minister’s top foreign policy adviser, Péter Gottfried, is leaving the prime minister’s narrow circle. Gottfried is a politician who has been involved in European affairs for a long time, since 1989 and was already there in the first Orbán government alongside the Prime Minister. He is considered a professional endowed with an excellent network of contacts and good strategic sense. He will become a member of the Monetary Council, but the decision was made abruptly because he is replacing a person, Gusztáv Báger, who has six months left in his six-year term.

The orbit of Fidesz

In this situation, the most logical and probable path for Fidesz would be to move to the European Alliance of Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). Before Brexit, representatives of the British ruling party were the most important factors in this group and the Polish ruling party was also very influential. With the withdrawal of the British, the Law and Justice (PiS) party took the lead, but the group now has only 62 seats, meaning that even if it joined 13 Fidesz members, they would still be among the smaller factions without voice in European processes.

Strictly on a theoretical level: if they joined the far-right populist faction Identity and Democracy, they would still only have 150 seats in the 705-seat parliament, meaning that the coveted one-third blocking minority would also be a very distant dream. . However, in the 2019 EP election campaign, Fidesz had something similar in common by joining the European national conservative forces. Then the voters overwritten this intention and the eviction within the Popular Party could continue, as we are witnessing now, for example in the form of the exclusion initiative against Tamás Deutsch. But in this case, a letter was no longer delivered to József Szájer.

In our featured image, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Donald Tusk, President of the European People’s Party