Economy: Some pleasant and many unpleasant surprises come to those who buy for Christmas

The weakening of the forint, supply difficulties due to the pandemic and the rise in the price of raw materials, all these factors influenced the fact that prices in grocery stores increased significantly in 2020 compared to previous years.

OSC data confirmed this month to month: within fluctuating inflation data, food prices remained stable, doubling the average price increase, which was 6.9-8.7 percent compared to the same period from the previous year. Furthermore, fuel costs included in prices have dropped significantly, for example, and a significant proportion of these goods still come from the Hungarian market, so it has not necessarily been affected by the unprecedented deep flight of the forint.

Of course, our last statement does not hurt: in the case of processed foods, the packaging material usually comes from abroad, and its price has been weighed down not only by the more expensive euro but also by the increase in prices. transport costs at certain times of the year. For other products, the prevailing international price level in the Hungarian market also affected consumer prices (in both directions), but in the case of fruit, for example, producers may have had a very weak year behind them. For example, a banana can cost less than an apple.

At the same time, as in previous years, it must be seen that, despite the fact that producers may be behind a market panic (we have seen this in the case of butter, eggs or pork in recent years), consumer prices are not very competitive. back to pre-surge levels. And it is not worth dreaming that a VAT cut caused by a sudden start will be reflected in a drop in consumer prices in the long term.

However, the good news is that the coronavirus epidemic has caused minimal supply problems. During the March shopping panic, for example, dry noodles and yeast disappeared from many stores for a few days, but moods quickly subsided once it became clear that grocery stores would be the last to close. from pharmacies.

All of these effects together determined the price of food this year, and when we set out for the fourth time this year to calculate how much hvg.hu’s four-person Christmas dinner menu would come from, we asked ourselves: the price of this year was it really that serious or just a sensual disappointment? ? This is also interesting because most of the products can be added to our basket throughout the year.

How we buy

As in recent years, this year’s clam chowder, stuffed cabbage, roast turkey and poppy seed bejgli ingredients for four have been added to our basket. We continued to use Lajos Mari’s recipes, and on the same days (December 3 and 4) we looked at the selection in an online store of Aldi, Lidl and Penny, Auchan, Príma, Spar and Tesco online. In the case of Auchan and Príma, we verify the price of the products that are not in the web store in a physical store. We calculate the actual prices, so if they were taking action somewhere, we took into account the reduced price. This, of course, can change from one day to the next. The weight of the products was determined by the packaging: in the case of measured products we take into account the price of the real weight, in the case of packaged products the packaging available in the given chain of stores, from which we calculate the cost of the required amount. In the case of spices, we assumed they were in the kitchen, so they were not included in the aggregation. The variation in the recipes was that we replaced butter with margarine, so two types of totals came out, these are indicated in our graph, and the comparisons, as in previous years, were based on the amount calculated with butter. We try to find products in the same category (for example, 2.8 percent UHT for milk), within which we look for the cheapest, with one exception: we look at Rama’s price for margarine. We investigated three products in the capital markets: whole carp, carp fillets and sauerkraut, averaging the observed prices.

However, the most striking increase in prices was for staple foods. In the case of rice, it is quite dramatic: the average price per kilogram has increased from 273 to 370 guilders in one year, in most places 349 guilders have to be paid for a quality B product. This is mainly due to the weakening del forint, as it is a difficult product to grow in large quantities in Hungary.

To a greater or lesser extent, however, practically all the prices of basic foods have risen in price: the price of milk, sugar, eggs and flour, even if it is only 10 to 20 guilders, is higher than last year’s average. In the case of vegetables, it seems we are used to previously unimaginable prices: the price of potatoes can only go below 249 HUF in action, and the price above 300 HUF is not uncommon for onions either. And the sauerkraut that is on the market seems to follow a rule of thumb: it grows 100 guilders every year, which now means a rising price of 700 guilders per kilo.

However, there is a group of products whose prices began to fall after last year’s races: pork is the one in which the price of raw meat has returned to normal: the average price of 500 grams of meat minced pork fell to 647 guilders a year ago. Furthermore, these products carry more weight in the final settlement than rice, where, as we used only 10 decades to create the menu line, the incredible increase in price also increases the total cost by just 10 forints.

Of course, a distinction must be made between how much we leave in the store and the cost calculated based on the amount required to make the menu bar. The increase in the price of staples also explains why, since we normally had to buy more of these than we need for the menu, we can already see a 29-30 percent price difference between the two totals, a even though last year it was only 26 percent higher than last year.

However, price movements that go against each other, at least for carnivores, can be a pleasant little surprise: compared to last year, the price of the menu (including carp and head sauerkraut bought in the market) has risen only 3.5 percent. What is even more unpleasant is that the final amount (with butter) is already just under ten thousand florins (9903 florins); Three years ago, when we passed the stores for the first time, we swam down the stretch twenty percent less.

If we look at the total amount that will be spent in the store and in the market, the picture is not much better: now it was 11,522 HUF, a year ago it was 11,000 HUF and in 2017 it was 9,961 HUF, that is, the prices of food increased by almost 16% despite VAT cuts that have gone into effect since then.

We also look at price differences without meat, fish and meat products in the total: this shows an average price increase of 5 percent in store prices in one year, and together with market prices it already exceeds 6 percent . This may still seem small compared to the CSO figures, but it must be added that our basket contains mostly unprocessed foods, which are often more expensive than the processed products made from them, especially if they are packaged. , in a material that was more expensive to buy at a lower forint exchange rate.