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The central bank no longer expects growth, but a recession for 2020 like everyone else. According to them, inflation will fall from the current European record level.
In 2020, Hungarian GDP is expected to contract between 5.1 and 6.8 percent, which may be followed by an increase of between 4.4 and 6.8 percent in 2021. The performance Economic could reach pre-epidemic levels in the 2022 round, writes the central bank’s Monetary Council in its explanatory memorandum of its decision meeting on interest rates on September 22, ahead of the forecast in the September inflation report. to be published on Thursday. This is a very significant change from the central bank chaired by György Matolcsy, the previous inflation report in June predicted a rise of 0.3-2 percent, which was already more than an optimistic forecast, as the European Commission had already forecast a drop. 8 percent. The Hungarian government’s prediction is also getting closer and closer.
End of optimism
The minutes of the Monetary Council now issued remind us that in the second quarter of 2020 the performance of the Hungarian economy decreased by 13.6% compared to the same period of the previous year, and that the number of diseases in Hungary began to increase again in late summer. In other words, not only has the economy slumped more than expected, but the second wave of the epidemic, which has meanwhile hit the economy, is taking longer than expected, which explains the deterioration of the forecast for 2020. The virus attacked strong points of the Hungarian economy, such as the automotive industry and tourism, explained Barnabás Virág, vice president of the central bank, in the briefing after the meeting. He also made it clear that the MNB also expects a recession of 5 to 7 percent in the third quarter.
Flower said a pipeline recovery is expected at the EU and international level. That is, it is not a fast V-shaped bounce, but a slower and longer process.
The Governor of the Central Bank, György Matolcsy, did not speak at the briefing, which can be interpreted as a message even though he is not used to it. Not only can the central bank governor be incomparably optimistic, but often outlines far-reaching visions. In the current situation (with a severe economic recession, high inflation and a deteriorating guilder exchange rate), however, it may not have been necessary to sketch large-scale visions at the central bank, but to consider prudence and factuality. provided by Vice President Barnabás Virág.
Flower Bernabé
© MTI / Zoltán Máthé
Only inflation matters
Based on central bank expectations, economic processes may stabilize in 2022, when inflation stabilizes at the 3% target, compared to 3.9% in August. Barnabás Virág emphasized several times, even many times and emphatically, that the Monetary Council monitors inflation processes and intervenes if necessary. “The key is price stability”, the turn of the economy, the allocation of resources is carried out almost independently, through programs, he emphasized.
A clear twist in the central bank’s communication is the increased emphasis on targeting inflation, while at the same time pushing the warming economy into the background. György Matolcsy’s absence is also eloquent in this regard, he openly believes that monetary policy should be subordinate to economic policy. By the way, one of the events of the current crisis is the confusion of monetary and fiscal policy, with central banks around the world pouring money into the economy, but this can be done where there is no inflationary pressure. For example, in the euro area, with an annual inflation rate of 0.2%, Hungary, for its part, had the highest inflation in the EU.
Neither the reasons for the decision nor Barnabás Virág said a word about the forint exchange rate. It is true that in the past it has been regularly emphasized that the central bank does not have an exchange rate target. The exchange rate (I mean the market) did not take this for granted, it was a bit of a roller coaster ride, strengthened from 362 to 360 after the interest rate decision, then weakened back to 362, and towards the end of the prospect, after five thirty in the afternoon. As well as on Tuesday morning, it had already fallen by five.
| Revolutionary economic programs continue |
|
The central bank has begun to buy government securities to a greater extent in recent weeks, that is, to finance public debt, and they promise to continue to do so. Unsurprisingly, the revival of the economy remains a priority, and the Monetary Council will increase the budget of the Growth Bond Program to HUF 750 billion on 23 September 2020. Under the FGS Hajra loan program, 8,000 national companies have already entered into 10,000 loan or lease agreements for an amount of almost 600,000 million HUF. |
Demand and supply have collapsed
The Monetary Council did not modify interest rate conditions, although inflation was almost outside the central bank’s tolerance range of 2 to 4 percent, and the forint depreciated against the euro by more than 360. In the months of In the summer, the increase in inflation was due to a strong increase in demand in some submarkets, while in others the supply lost due to the epidemic situation recovered only slowly, explains the explanatory memorandum. The central bank expects inflation to even approach the current level in September, and even break out of the 4 percent tolerance band, according to the MNB forecast, and then gradually decline by the end of the year due to lower prices. fuel and base effects. In the coming quarters, the development of the underlying processes will be determined by the result of supply-demand frictions related to the restart of the economy and the increasingly generalized disinflationary effects of weak demand. In other words, inflation is expected to fall, or at least stay within the tolerance band, so no intervention is necessary.
The rebound in demand in the summer provided an opportunity for unusual price increases during this period, which was incorporated into inflation, Barnabás Virág explained. In other words, according to the central bank, the epidemic had effects of increasing inflation in the summer. These epidemic-induced frictions between supply and demand may persist in the coming quarters; the question is whether the normal processes or these processes related to the epidemic will have a greater impact.
According to the central bank, due to the prevalence of part-time employment, half of the real wage increase may be as large as the statistics showing only full-time employees. In other words, the pace of wage outflow has slowed down, which is holding back demand, thus also having a depressing effect on prices.
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